The global textile industry is experiencing an emotional rebound rather than a fundamental recovery. The 40th ITMF global survey puts the business climate balance at -23 percentage points, a clear improvement from the previous low but still deep in contraction territory. More tellingly, average order backlog stands at just 2.3 months and capacity utilization at 71%, both far below pre-pandemic levels. The message is clear: the coming six months will be defined by divergence and restraint, not a broad upturn.
Global Picture: Strong Ends, Weak Middle
Regionally, South Asia and Africa are the only areas with positive sentiment, continuously absorbing yarn and garment capacity transfers and serving as global growth engines. Europe, North America and Central America show sharply negative readings as end-consumer demand weakens and brand destocking continues. East and Southeast Asia, the traditional manufacturing bases, remain cautious about the outlook.
The profit distribution along the supply chain continues to follow a smile curve. Recycled fibers, bio-based fibers and other green differentiated products show stronger demand resilience. Midstream players—spinning, dyeing and finishing, and textile machinery—face widespread pressure, with the dyeing segment at the bottom. The core contradiction: downstream brands are conservative on capital expenditure, unwilling to invest in new equipment, while midstream processors have weak bargaining power. Raw material, energy and environmental costs are squeezing margins from all sides.
On the order front, the global new orders index improved slightly but remains negative. 46% of surveyed companies expect market conditions to stay largely unchanged over the next six months, with optimistic expectations lacking support from long-cycle, large-volume orders. The top three risks are weak demand (56%), raw material price volatility (42%), and rising energy costs (41%). A wave of green compliance regulations in Europe and the US—covering carbon footprint verification, environmental claims substantiation, and anti-fast-fashion rules—is raising export barriers, particularly for small and medium-sized exporters.
Keqiao Signals: Inquiries Up, Big Orders Scarce
China's Keqiao Textile City, the country's core fabric hub, mirrors the global trend after the National Day holiday. Autumn-winter fabrics have entered the procurement window, with woolen, brushed, warm elastic and outdoor functional fabrics seeing more inquiries. Domestic apparel brands, e-commerce clients and secondary wholesalers are visiting showrooms, requesting samples and running trials.
But the buzz is concentrated in samples and small orders. Large-volume orders remain elusive. Customers are placing orders mainly for trial sales and on-demand replenishment, with orders of tens or hundreds of meters rising steadily. Long-cycle, big-ticket orders are rare—a classic small-batch, quick-response pattern. Standard commodity fabrics are mired in fierce price competition with razor-thin margins, while differentiated fabrics with functional, recycled or special texture features enjoy more stable inquiries and greater pricing power.
Domestic and export markets are diverging further. Domestic clients focus on autumn-winter launches with high sampling frequency and fast delivery requirements. Export buyers are more cautious: European and US clients place conservative, fragmented orders while raising requirements for environmental certification, chemical control and carbon-related documentation. Many exporters are pivoting to Belt and Road, Southeast Asian and African markets to offset weak Western demand.
Weaving and dyeing operations remain cautious. Mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have not ramped up capacity quickly after the holiday, scheduling production on demand rather than building greige inventory or scaling up. This aligns with the global survey finding that companies are reluctant to expand. Many Keqiao merchants have adjusted strategies—reducing low-value standard fabric stock and increasing recycled and functional fabric reserves, while using the local quality infrastructure platform to strengthen testing and certification capabilities for overseas green compliance.
Practical Implications for Buyers and Factories
Order fragmentation is not a short-term disturbance but a structural shift driven by global brand destocking, quick-response models and compliance costs. For buyers, a supplier's ability to handle small orders and provide complete compliance documentation is replacing pure price advantage as the core screening criterion. For factories, the risk of blind capacity expansion far outweighs the opportunity; flexible scheduling, differentiated development and certification readiness are the keys to surviving the cycle.
For Buyers - Prioritize suppliers capable of small-batch, multi-frequency delivery to shorten trial cycles - Include environmental certification and carbon footprint documentation in supplier qualification lists - Use multi-source price comparison for standard fabrics and lock in long-term technical partners for functional fabrics
For Factories - Control greige inventory and schedule production on demand to reduce capital tie-up - Increase development of recycled, bio-based and functional fabrics to enhance pricing power - Prepare carbon footprint accounting and green certification in advance to meet overseas compliance requirements
For Exporters - Accelerate market diversification to reduce dependence on any single Western market - Build order splitting and short lead times into routine operational capabilities - Leverage regional quality infrastructure platforms to lower testing and certification costs
The coming six months will not bring a broad global textile recovery. Growth will be slow and uneven. South Asia and Africa will continue to release capacity dividends. Western end demand remains weak, and green compliance costs keep rising. Traditional manufacturing regions face persistent order pressure. China's domestic market will see structural opportunities, with seasonal autumn-winter fabric inquiries picking up, but order fragmentation and short-cycle patterns will not change. For industry participants, adapting to small-batch quick response is not a choice—it is a survival imperative.