The June 5 bulk commodity price monitoring data reveals a critical signal: the textile raw material market is shifting from broad-based gains to structural divergence. PTA surged 2.31% daily and 34.36% year-on-year, making it the strongest performer of the day. In contrast, acrylonitrile fell 1.49%, cotton dropped 0.74%, and polyester staple fiber edged down 0.10%. Although the average price remained flat, the divergence among varieties warrants deeper analysis.
Chemical Fiber Sector: PTA Stands Alone, Downstream Follows Weakly
PTA’s strong performance is not an isolated event. Over the past year, PTA prices have accumulated gains of more than 30%, driven by upstream PX cost support and rigid demand from the polyester end. However, within the same polyester family, FDY only inched up 0.09%, while POY and DTY were completely flat, and staple fiber even turned negative. This means PTA’s gains have not been effectively passed downstream. Polyester yarn prices also stagnated, reflecting the weaving sector’s insufficient willingness to absorb high-cost raw materials.
Acrylonitrile’s 1.49% daily drop deserves attention. As a core raw material for acrylic fiber and ABS resin, its price softening may signal weakening downstream demand. Although it still rose 21.88% year-on-year, a short-term inflection point may have emerged.
Cotton Chain: Cotton Pulls Back, Yarn Holds Steady
Cotton fell 0.74% on the day, narrowing its year-on-year gain to 22.19%. This is linked to expectations of increased new-cotton planting area, rumors of reserve releases, and lackluster downstream orders. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices remained unchanged, indicating that mills are adopting a wait-and-see approach rather than actively restocking when raw material prices drop. Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn also stayed flat, putting the entire cotton chain into a stalemate.
Raw silk prices have been flat for consecutive days, down 7.10% year-on-year—the only negative growth among monitored varieties. The sericulture industry faces dual pressure from weak end-consumer demand and competition from substitutes.
Spandex and Nylon: High-Level Consolidation Awaiting Direction
Spandex was quoted at 29,833.33 yuan/ton, up 21.77% year-on-year, but has been flat for many days. Nylon DTY, FDY, and POY also showed no movement. These elastic fiber varieties are typically sensitive to garment orders; price consolidation implies that brand owners and contract manufacturers are adopting a conservative procurement pace.
Industry Assessment: Cost-Driven Rally Nearing Its End
From the data pattern, the current market exhibits a “strong upstream, flat midstream, weak downstream” transmission blockage. PTA’s strength comes more from cost input at the crude oil and PX ends than from a genuine recovery in end-user textile demand. Once crude oil corrects, PTA could face significant downside risk.
For buyers, now is not the time to chase PTA and related varieties. If cotton’s decline continues, it will open up profit margins for cotton textile products. Although the tiny drop in polyester staple fiber is small, its directional signal is clear—the cost-effectiveness of chemical fibers versus cotton is shifting.