On June 5, international crude oil markets experienced significant volatility. WTI crude fell 2.3% intraday to close at $92.18 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped over 2.2% to $92.28 per barrel. This marks the first time since late May that oil prices have declined over multiple consecutive sessions, breaching the psychologically important $93 threshold. For the textile industry, this is not an isolated event but a signal for re-pricing chemical fiber costs.
The cost transmission chain from oil to fabric is clear: crude oil → naphtha → PX → PTA/MEG → polyester filament → grey fabric. Based on current oil prices around $93/barrel, PTA production costs have fallen by approximately 50-80 yuan per ton compared to a week ago, while MEG costs have dropped by 30-50 yuan per ton. Although polyester plants have not yet fully adjusted prices, PTA futures fell about 1.5% in night trading on June 6, reflecting market expectations of cost collapse.
Polyester filament yarn is one of the most important raw materials for woven fabrics, accounting for 40%-60% of fabric costs. If crude oil continues to decline, polyester plants' price support will quickly erode, likely leading to a 200-300 yuan per ton reduction in polyester filament prices by mid-June. For chemical fiber clusters in Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, this means high-cost inventory faces depreciation risk, while grey fabric buyers may adopt a wait-and-see approach for lower prices.
In the afternoon of June 5, chemical fiber traders in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, and Wujiang, Jiangsu, began reducing purchasing volumes, with some weaving mills suspending raw material inquiries. Intermediaries at the Keqiao Light Textile City reported delays in sample orders for autumn/winter fabrics from downstream garment factories, as clients turned pessimistic about grey fabric costs. This short-term 'buy on rising, not on falling' mentality could suppress polyester filament sales-to-output ratios over the next two weeks, leading to passive inventory accumulation at polyester plants.
From a broader perspective, the crude oil decline is not entirely negative for the textile industry. For categories relying on cotton, linen, and viscose, lower oil prices reduce transportation and energy costs, potentially improving profit margins. However, in China's textile export structure, chemical fiber and blended fabrics account for over 70%, making oil volatility the industry's largest systemic variable.
The backdrop to this oil price decline is growing market concerns over a global economic slowdown. On June 5, U.S. ISM services PMI data came in below expectations, coupled with OPEC+ production increase rumors, jointly suppressing bullish sentiment. For textile foreign trade enterprises, falling oil prices mean lower procurement costs for overseas clients, theoretically favoring order recovery, but only if end demand does not continue to deteriorate.
Notably, Brent crude has strong technical support around $92/barrel. If oil stabilizes here, the downside room for chemical fiber costs is limited, and polyester plants' price concessions will be manageable. Conversely, if oil breaks below $90, it could trigger a full-scale price cut in textile raw materials, with grey fabric and finished fabric prices adjusting by 5%-8% in stages.