US cotton spot prices fell sharply in the first week of June. For the week ending June 4, the average price for base quality cotton across seven designated markets was 71.41 cents/lb, down 71 points from 72.12 cents the previous week. The decline mirrored ICE futures, where the December contract settled at 78.49 cents, down 2.02 cents or 2.51% for the week.
Price Volatility and Market Sentiment
Despite the weekly drop, spot prices remain nearly 14% above the 62.66 cents recorded a year ago, indicating that upstream cost pressure has not eased substantially. Intra-week prices peaked at 72.18 cents on June 2 before sliding to a low of 69.93 cents on June 4, a range of over 2 cents. The rapid decline likely reflects speculative fund exits and repositioning ahead of new crop expectations, rather than a fundamental shift.
Notably, cumulative spot sales for the 2025/26 marketing year (starting August 1) reached 1,504,079 bales, a 56% surge compared to 962,453 bales last year. This suggests that despite elevated prices, downstream mills and traders are actively securing supply, possibly in preparation for second-half orders.
Weather and Planting Progress
USDA's June 1 crop progress report shows planting accelerating across major regions, though weather conditions vary.
In the Southeast, Alabama is 83% planted, Georgia 72%, North Carolina 77%, South Carolina 76%, and Virginia 68%. A cold front brought 0.5-3 inches of rain, alleviating drought in the Carolinas but also causing muddy fields. Spot trading remains slow, with moderate supplies and mill inquiry focused on high-grade cotton for Q4 2026 delivery.
The Southwest presents a more complex picture. East-South Texas remains wet, with thunderstorms increasing field muddiness and weed control difficulty. Critically, extension specialists report rising cotton fleahopper populations, forcing growers to increase insecticide applications. West Texas-Kansas-Oklahoma received beneficial rainfall, from trace amounts to 2.25 inches, boosting industry sentiment. However, hail reports and muddy conditions have delayed planting in some areas.
Insurance Deadlines Drive Planting Rush
For southwestern growers, the window for full insurance coverage is closing. In the Southern High Plains and Rolling Plains, final planting dates for full coverage are June 10 and June 20. South-central Kansas's deadline passed on June 5, and southwestern Kansas on June 1. Oklahoma's Panhandle counties have also passed their deadlines. Fields planted after these dates receive reduced coverage, increasing cost risk for new crop.
This deadline pressure may push some marginal acres to alternative crops, potentially affecting final planted area. USDA's subsequent acreage report will be closely watched.
Downstream Demand and Trade Flows
Domestic mill buyers have inquired moderately for medium-to-high grade cotton (color 41, leaf 4, staple 35 and above) for Q4 2026 delivery, but no trades have been reported. Yarn demand is slow to moderate, with mills cautious in balancing raw cotton purchases against yarn orders. Export demand is moderate, with active inquiries from India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, underscoring Asia's continued reliance on US cotton.