China's national cotton sowing was largely completed by the end of May 2026, but seedling condition data flashed warning signals. A survey by the China Cotton Association covering 1,807 farmers across 10 provinces and Xinjiang shows only 45.9% of respondents rated seedling conditions as better than or equal to last year, a sharp drop of 34 percentage points year-on-year. Excessive rainfall emerged as the primary drag on seedling growth, affecting all three major producing regions but with notable divergence.
Growth Indicators Lag Behind
Nationally, sowing progress reached 99.5%, just 0.2 percentage points behind last year, but regional disparities were significant. The Yangtze River basin lagged most, at 89.3%, down 6.9 points year-on-year, partly due to wheat harvesting delays. The Yellow River basin reached 95.6%, 1.4 points slower. Xinjiang completed sowing fully, but persistent rain, hail, wind, and sandstorms from mid-May weakened early-sown seedling advantages.
Seedling age structure data further confirms growth slowdown. Nationwide, 85.5% of seedlings were at the 4-8 true-leaf stage, down 8.9 points from last year. In Xinjiang, the share at 6-8 true leaves dropped 17.5 points to 49.8%, while the 4-5 leaf share rose 8.4 points to 36%, indicating delayed development. In the Yangtze basin, 37.6% of seedlings were at the 2-3 leaf stage, a 19.3-point increase, highlighting severe immaturity.
Regional Divergence: Yangtze Basin Worst Hit
Xinjiang's seedling assessment turned sharply negative: 57.2% of respondents rated conditions worse than last year, up 37.7 points, while only 28.3% rated them good, down 7.7 points. Insufficient accumulated temperature and adverse weather directly suppressed squaring progress, with less than 20% of seedlings having squared by month-end. This suggests potential damage to Xinjiang's 2026 per-unit yield potential from the outset.
The Yellow River basin showed some local improvement. Early May saw fine weather, and later rainfall replenished soil moisture, though low-lying fields experienced waterlogging. 61.7% of respondents rated growth as good, up 22.6 points year-on-year, while the share rating conditions worse did not rise significantly. Pest pressure was also lighter, with 59.7% of fields reporting mild insect damage, a 12.2-point improvement. The region's resilience partly stems from better initial soil moisture, but local waterlogging risks remain.
The Yangtze River basin suffered the most severe deterioration. Only 18.9% of respondents rated growth good, a 36.7-point plunge, while 58.2% rated it worse than last year, up 35.6 points. Disease and pest pressure surged: fields with mild disease dropped 40.6 points to 41.2%, and those with mild insect damage fell 36.8 points to 30.7%. Abnormal climate-induced waterlogging was the primary driver, significantly undermining farmer confidence.
Implications for the Supply Chain
Seedling data is a leading indicator for yield forecasts. May's developmental delays imply that subsequent stages—squaring, flowering, boll opening—may shift later, increasing the risk of early autumn frost damage. For textile mills, the 2026/27 new crop may arrive later, and lower yields will likely push up procurement cost expectations.
On the price front, Zhengzhou cotton futures have already partially priced in weather premiums, but the seedling data could reinforce market concerns about tightening supply. A larger-than-expected output drop in the Yangtze basin would widen the domestic supply gap, redirecting more demand toward Xinjiang cotton and imports.
Rising pest pressure also warrants attention. Nationwide, 76.8% of fields reported mild disease, down 3.2 points year-on-year. While overall insect damage data is not fully disclosed, the Yangtze basin's sharp deterioration is alarming. If control measures prove insufficient, pest spread could further depress yields.