The viscose staple fiber price structure is undergoing a regional divergence. On June 12, quotations for the same 1.2D×38mm specification showed a spread of up to 300 CNY/ton across different production bases. Jiangxi Sateri and Tangshan Sanyou maintained prices at 14,200 CNY/ton, while Nanjing Chemical Fiber and Hengtian Hailong dropped to 13,900 CNY/ton. This is not a simple promotional tactic but a genuine reflection of regional supply-demand imbalances.
Regional Quotation Divergence: The Scissors Gap Between Inventory Pressure and Order Rhythm
Shandong Yamei quoted 14,100 CNY/ton, sitting between high and low prices, indicating that the Binzhou area is in a transitional phase of inventory digestion and order connection. Tangshan Sanyou's firm price is backed by stable demand for differentiated fibers in the northern market. Meanwhile, the low-price strategy of Nanjing Chemical Fiber and Hengtian Hailong is an inevitable result of intensified competition for commoditized products in East China.
From the industrial chain perspective, the downstream rayon yarn market is currently operating at around 70% capacity, with cautious purchasing intentions. Inventory destocking at the grey fabric stage is slower than expected, significantly slowing the pace of yarn mills' restocking of viscose staple fiber. This wait-and-see sentiment directly impacts upstream pricing power, putting greater sales pressure on firms with firm quotations.
Cost Support vs. Capacity Game: Where Is the Price Floor?
Current viscose staple fiber prices are close to the full cost line for some producers. Based on dissolving pulp market prices, raw material costs per ton of viscose staple fiber are around 10,500-11,000 CNY. Adding processing costs, depreciation, and logistics, a price of 13,900 CNY leaves almost no profit margin. However, against a backdrop of industry overcapacity, concerted production cuts to support prices are difficult to achieve.
In 2026, China's effective viscose staple fiber capacity is expected to exceed 5 million tons, with the average industry operating rate in the first half of the year only 82%. This implies nearly 750,000 tons of idle capacity per month that could restart at any time. Once prices recover to above 14,500 CNY/ton, the incentive to restart mothballed plants will significantly increase, capping the upside potential.
Export Market Variables: Can Southeast Asian Orders Be the Antidote?
Notably, inquiries from traditional buyers such as India and Pakistan for viscose staple fiber have increased recently. High domestic cotton prices in India are driving demand for substitute fibers. However, the lead time for export orders is typically 4-6 weeks, meaning the impact on current domestic spot prices will lag.
At the same time, RMB exchange rate fluctuations add uncertainty to export quotations. If the currency continues to weaken, export price advantages will expand, potentially diverting some domestic supply and easing pressure in the domestic market. However, local synthetic fiber capacity in Southeast Asia is also expanding. In the long run, the export competitiveness of Chinese viscose staple fiber will depend on cost control and product differentiation.