The seedling growth data for cotton in May 2026 sends a clear warning signal to the entire textile supply chain. A survey by the China Cotton Association covering 1,807 fixed-point farmers across the country shows that as of May 31, national cotton sowing progress had reached 99.5%, essentially complete. However, seedling quality has significantly deteriorated. Only 45.9% of surveyed farmers rated seedling conditions as good or equal to last year, a sharp drop of 34 percentage points. This means more than half of cotton fields are experiencing weak growth, primarily due to abnormally high rainfall in May.
Three Major Growing Regions Under Pressure, Yangtze River Basin Hit Hardest
Regionally, no major cotton area was spared. In Xinjiang, while most fields had adequate heat and moisture, persistent rain from mid-May, along with local hailstorms, strong winds, and sandstorms, damaged plastic mulch and reduced accumulated temperature. This eroded the advantage of early-sown seedlings, leading to overall weaker growth. Survey data shows 57.2% of Xinjiang farmers rated seedling conditions worse than last year, up 37.7 percentage points year-on-year.
Conditions in the Yellow River basin were relatively moderate but still concerning. The first half of May saw fine weather, while multiple rainfall events in the second half replenished soil moisture but caused waterlogging in low-lying areas. Sowing progress in this region was 95.6%, 1.4 percentage points slower than last year. Encouragingly, 61.7% of farmers reported good growth, up 22.6 percentage points, indicating some resilience.
The Yangtze River basin suffered the most from abnormal weather. Excessive rainfall hindered cotton growth, with farmers widely reporting weak seedlings. Sowing progress was only 89.3%, down 6.9 percentage points, as farmers prioritized wheat harvesting. Only 18.9% of farmers rated seedling conditions as good, a 36.7-percentage-point decline, while 58.2% rated conditions worse than last year, up 35.6 percentage points. Pest and disease incidence worsened sharply: the proportion of fields with mild disease dropped from 81.8% to 41.2%, and mild pest incidence fell from 67.5% to 30.7%.
Transmission to the Supply Chain
Seedling data is not just an agricultural metric; it directly signals potential yield and quality outcomes for new cotton. Nationally, 85.5% of cotton is in the 4-8 true leaf stage, down 8.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating delayed development. This delay pushes back subsequent stages of squaring, flowering, and boll opening, increasing the risk of early autumn frosts, which can compromise fiber maturity and micronaire.
For textile mills, this means the 2026 new crop may arrive later and high-grade cotton supply could shrink. In Xinjiang, squaring is below 20%, and the proportion of seedlings at 4-5 true leaves rose 8.4 percentage points to 36%, while those at 6-8 true leaves fell 17.5 percentage points to 49.8%. This suggests smaller plant sizes and reduced yield potential.
Implications for Procurement and Inventory
Current seedling conditions require the textile chain to adjust expectations. Spinning mills relying on domestic cotton should closely monitor weather during August-September, the critical growth period. If adverse conditions persist, new crop production cuts may strengthen, pushing up seed cotton and lint prices.
Additionally, the high incidence of pests and diseases demands attention. In the Yangtze River basin, only 30.7% of fields had mild pest incidence, down 36.8 percentage points, with major pests including aphids, bollworms, and red spiders. Inadequate control could directly reduce yield and quality. Textile mills may need to shift some demand to reserve or imported cotton to hedge against domestic supply uncertainty.