The May 2026 sentiment indices for China's textile and apparel professional markets have been released, with both core figures hovering near the 50 threshold. The manager index fell to 49.35, down 1.46 percentage points from April, while the merchant index edged up 0.02 points to 49.73. These numbers suggest a structural pressure on the circulation side rather than simple seasonal fluctuations.
Core Indicators Weaken Across the Board
Among the sub-indices for managers, the total turnover index dropped to 49.03, and both the logistics volume and foot traffic indices fell to 48.39—the lowest points this year. The store opening rate index bucked the trend, rising 1.61 points to 49.03, but the rent index and e-commerce sales index fell by 0.97 and 3.22 points respectively, with the latter seeing the biggest decline. This indicates that while market operators are maintaining store openings to stabilize merchant confidence amid declining foot traffic, their rent bargaining power and online growth momentum are both weakening.
On the merchant side, the picture is equally concerning. The sales volume, profit, and inventory indices all fell below 50, with the profit index at just 48.97. The comprehensive cost index rose to 50.82, suggesting that merchants' operating cost pressures have eased somewhat—but this relief stems more from raw material price adjustments than from improvements on the sales side. The inventory index fell to 49.79, meaning inventory pressure is intensifying and the destocking cycle is lengthening.
Online Channels Show Resilience, But Growth Slows
Notably, although the e-commerce sales index for managers fell 3.22 points month-on-month and the merchant e-commerce index dropped 0.75 points, both remained above the 50 threshold at 50.97 and 50.14 respectively. This contrasts sharply with the broad offline weakness. Industry data shows that e-commerce's share of professional market sales is slowly increasing, but growth has slowed from double digits in Q1 to single digits. For merchants reliant on traditional booth models, the marginal benefit of online channels is diminishing, but they remain a lifeline for survival.
The Seesaw Effect Between Costs and Inventory
The most noteworthy structural change in the May data is the divergence between costs and inventory. The comprehensive cost index rebounded from below 50 to 50.82, meaning rigid costs like raw materials and labor have loosened. Yet the inventory index fell below 50, indicating that merchants are not expanding stockpiles despite lower costs—they are actively contracting. This abnormal combination of "costs down, inventory up" reflects the transmission of end-demand uncertainty through the circulation chain. Buyers remain cautious about the outlook and are reluctant to replenish, leaving merchants with unsold goods.
Forward-Looking Indices Still Above Threshold
The forward-looking manager index for June stands at 53.23, and the merchant index at 50.14, both above 50. This suggests market participants still hold expectations for June, but optimism has weakened compared to April. Combined with the decline in the business environment index (manager forward index to 52.90, merchant to 50.07), it appears that confidence is more seasonal—driven by summer seasonal restocking and the 618 promotion node—rather than based on fundamental improvement.