China's cotton imports surged 1.8 times year-on-year in April 2026, while edging down 5.8% month-on-month. This seemingly contradictory data reveals a market caught in a delicate balance of competing forces.
The import spike was not purely demand-driven. It resulted from a convergence of the domestic-international cotton price gap, the rollout of additional sliding-duty quotas, and seasonal industry patterns. As foreign cotton's cost advantage persisted and quotas became operational, imports naturally climbed.
Import Structure and Price Logic
Brazilian cotton maintained its top position with a 57% share, and its increased arrivals pulled down the average import price by 1.1% month-on-month to USD 1,655 per ton. US cotton's share rebounded 7 percentage points to 15%, reflecting a temporary easing in Sino-US trade relations and a sharp price correction for US cotton.
Price differentials among origins are reshaping procurement decisions. Brazilian cotton averaged USD 1,582 per ton, down 9.2% year-on-year; US cotton averaged USD 1,725, down 15.1%. The deeper decline in US cotton prices means its cost-effectiveness is rapidly recovering. For buyers, this allows more flexible switching between origins based on price signals.
Industry Transmission and Order Rhythm
April marked the late stage of the traditional peak season, with signs of insufficient terminal orders. Companies' restocking intentions weakened, explaining the month-on-month import decline. Meanwhile, textile and apparel exports surged 44.7% month-on-month, driven by the concentrated delivery of delayed orders rather than a burst of new ones.
A detail worth noting: apparel exports fell 2.2% year-on-year, while textile exports rose 1%. This suggests downstream garment sectors are weaker than upstream fabric sectors, with inventory pressure potentially shifting down the chain.
Global Supply Variables
The USDA's May report raised global cotton production and consumption by about 1% each, with the ending stock-to-use ratio falling to 64.3%. The production increase came mainly from Uzbekistan, while consumption was lifted by China and Uzbekistan. Brazil's cotton exports hit a new monthly record of 370,400 tons in April, up 54.9% year-on-year.
Brazil's growing exports are reshaping global trade flows. Bangladesh, Pakistan, and China together accounted for 51% of Brazil's April exports, indicating rising South Asian dependence on Brazilian cotton. For Chinese mills, Brazilian supply stability is becoming a key cost variable.
Price Outlook and Procurement Strategy
International cotton prices surged in mid-to-late April, narrowing the domestic-international price gap. This means the cost advantage of imported cotton is diminishing. If the gap continues to narrow, imports may fall further in May.
Bonded warehouse entries still accounted for 43% of imports, suggesting a large volume of cotton remains in bonded storage rather than entering production. How this inventory is eventually absorbed will directly impact domestic spot market balance.