In the second week of June 2026, textile commodity prices showed a rare divergence: the polyester chain continued its upward trend, while cotton, nylon, and silk declined. The overall weekly average change was -0.14%, but the underlying logic behind each category's movement differed sharply.
Polyester Chain: Cost Pass-Through and Demand Resilience
Polyester DTY rose 0.65% WoW, FDY 0.37%, and PTA 0.28%, with YoY gains of 15.24%, 21.71%, and 35.62% respectively. Polyester POY also edged up 0.15%. This indicates that upstream cost pressure from the PX-PTA chain is being effectively passed downstream, while downstream weaving demand for polyester filament remains resilient.
Notably, PTA's YoY gain of 35.62% far exceeds that of downstream polyester yarns, suggesting that polyester mills' profit margins are being squeezed. If PTA remains elevated, polyester yarns may have further upside, and buyers should watch for price adjustment windows before end-June.
Cotton Sector: Dual Pressure from New-Crop Expectations and Weak Orders
Cotton fell 1.32% WoW. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were flat, but their YoY gains of only around 5% lag far behind synthetics. Nylon POY posted the largest decline at 1.43%, and nylon DTY fell 0.37%. Raw silk dropped 0.68%.
The core logic behind cotton's decline: increased planting area in the Northern Hemisphere has priced in a looser supply outlook for the 2026/27 season, while downstream cotton mills face insufficient orders, falling operating rates, and slow destocking. Nylon POY's decline is linked to caprolactam cost easing and lower nylon weaving capacity utilization.
Price Scissors: A Turning Point for Sourcing Strategy
The price scissors between polyester and cotton are widening. Polyester DTY is up 15% YoY, while cotton yarn is only up 4%-5%, narrowing the spread from about RMB 6,000/ton a year ago to less than RMB 4,000/ton. This shift directly impacts fabric sourcing decisions:
- For apparel brands using polyester-cotton blends, the rising polyester cost share and falling cotton cost share open a window for blend ratio adjustments.
- For pure-cotton fabric buyers, the current cotton price correction offers a short-term locking opportunity, but caution is warranted as new-crop arrivals may push prices lower.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Prioritize locking in polyester filament yarn orders for June, building 1-2 months of safety stock during the current mild uptrend. - Adopt a batch-buying strategy for cotton yarn to avoid heavy positions during the ongoing cotton price decline. - Monitor the PTA-MEG spread; if PTA corrects below RMB 6,400/ton, consider increasing polyester inventory proportion.
For Foreign Trade Firms - For export contracts involving polyester fabrics, include a raw material price adjustment clause, locking in a 3%-5% renegotiation space. - For cotton-based export orders, watch RMB exchange rate volatility; current cotton weakness combined with RMB depreciation expectations could compress margins. - Use the current low in nylon POY to negotiate quarterly framework agreements with upstream suppliers for favorable settlement prices.
The divergence in the textile chain will not persist indefinitely. As summer electricity peak arrives, PTA plant maintenance will strengthen the synthetic cost floor, while the cotton side must wait until August for autumn/winter orders to revive. The current period is a critical window for adjusting sourcing structures and optimizing cost control.