In May, both sentiment indices for textile and apparel specialized markets fell below the 50 threshold. The manager index dropped 1.46 points to 49.35, while the merchant index edged up 0.02 points to 49.73, signaling a phase of contraction in the distribution channel.
Key Indicators Under Pressure
The total business volume index fell to 49.03, logistics shipment volume dropped to 48.39, and foot traffic also declined to 48.39—all three positive indicators fell below the boom-or-bust line. Notably, logistics shipments posted the largest month-on-month decline of 2.26 points, directly reflecting weaker transaction activity.
Merchants faced similar headwinds. Sales volume stood at 49.11, average selling price at 49.52, and profitability at 48.97—all below 50, meaning most merchants struggled simultaneously on quantity, price, and profit. However, the comprehensive cost index rose 1.64 points to 50.82, suggesting raw material or operational costs eased, offering some breathing room.
E-commerce Growth Slows but Remains Structural Support
The manager e-commerce sales index plunged 3.22 points from 54.19 to 50.97, the largest single-item decline this month. The merchant e-commerce index also fell 0.75 points to 50.14. Although both indices still hover above the threshold, growth has clearly decelerated. Combined with declines in total business volume and foot traffic, it is evident that online channels failed to fully offset offline contraction.
For buyers, this signals that e-commerce penetration in specialized markets has reached a plateau, and relying solely on online traffic can no longer drive overall growth.
Rising Inventory Pressure, Limited Cost Relief
The merchant inventory index fell to 49.79, below the 50 threshold, indicating that inventory overhang worsened in May. Meanwhile, the comprehensive cost index rose to 50.82, but this improvement was driven by a temporary pullback in upstream raw material prices, not by a recovery in end demand. Once raw material prices rebound, the cost relief will quickly vanish.
The combination of rising inventories and falling costs reflects a passive restocking pattern—merchants are forced to hold inventory due to sluggish sales, rather than actively stocking up for peak season. This introduces uncertainty for June.
Outlook Still Cautiously Optimistic, Adjustment Not Recession
Despite weak actual data in May, managers and merchants remain optimistic about June: the forward manager index stands at 53.23, and the forward merchant index at 50.14. This suggests no panic in the industry, which views the current situation as seasonal fluctuation or a phase adjustment.
Historically, May is a transition period between spring and summer, marked by order gaps and inventory clearance. This year, the adjustment is slightly deeper than usual due to slowing e-commerce growth and weaker-than-expected offline foot traffic recovery. But forward indices staying above 50 indicate a supported bottom.