The divergence in raw material prices is becoming the most noteworthy signal in the textile industry today. Price monitoring data from June 12 reveals a clear pattern: cotton and rayon yarn posted modest gains, while chemical fiber raw materials and raw silk collectively faced downward pressure. The overall average edged down 0.06%, but the year-on-year gap among varieties has widened to over 40 percentage points.
Divergence: PTA Leads, Raw Silk Lags
On a day-on-day basis, rayon yarn and cotton were the only gainers, rising 0.14% and 0.05% to 17,850 yuan/ton and 17,350.67 yuan/ton, respectively. Most other products were flat or declined, with raw silk falling 0.68% to 437,400 yuan/ton, polyester staple fiber down 0.24%, and PTA down 0.18%.
The year-on-year data is more telling. PTA surged 35.62%, polyester FDY and staple fiber rose 21.71% and 20.43%, and acrylonitrile gained 24.17%. Raw silk, however, fell 7.7%, the only negative year-on-year performer. This extreme divergence signals very different supply-demand pressures across chains.
Cost and Demand: Two Divergent Transmission Chains
PTA's strength stems from high crude oil prices and tight PX supply. As the upstream of the polyester chain, PTA has stayed above 6,600 yuan/ton for months, pushing up costs for polyester filament and staple fiber. Notably, polyester POY, DTY, and FDY were flat or slightly down on June 12, suggesting that downstream weaving mills are less willing to absorb high-priced raw materials, and inventory pressure is moving upstream.
Raw silk's persistent weakness reflects tepid end-demand. Silk products target high-end home textiles and apparel exports, but European and U.S. markets did not see the expected restocking in the first half of 2026. Combined with stable spring cocoon output, supply has not tightened, dragging raw silk prices from 474,000 yuan/ton last year to 437,400 yuan/ton.
Cotton's modest gains benefit from global production cut expectations and low domestic commercial inventory. Cotton rose 16.85% year-on-year, while cotton yarn 21S and 32S gained 5.41% and 4.11%, respectively. This aligns with reduced planting area in Xinjiang for the 2025/2026 season, with market expectations of tighter supply materializing.
Industrial Cluster Impact: Polyester vs. Cotton
Price divergence is impacting industrial clusters differently. In Shengze, a polyester hub, mills face a double squeeze from high raw material costs and limited ability to raise fabric prices. Polyester POY is up 18.43% year-on-year, but weaving profit margins have not expanded, and some small factories have begun cutting operating rates.
In Keqiao and Nantong, where cotton spinning and home textiles dominate, modest cotton yarn price increases have provided more stable cost expectations for downstream fabric mills. Rayon yarn's strength contrasts with stable viscose staple fiber prices (14,060 yuan/ton since April), suggesting demand-side drivers—rising preference for rayon blends in summer apparel.
Spandex's 21.77% year-on-year gain is also notable. This elastic fiber's price rise is mainly cost-driven from the BDO chain, but downstream demand from intimate apparel and sportswear brands is relatively inelastic, allowing smoother price pass-through.