May traditionally marks the transition from peak to off-season in the textile industry, but this year's sentiment data from China's textile and apparel professional markets reveals unusual signals. The manager sentiment index and merchant sentiment index diverged, with the former accelerating its decline and the latter barely holding steady, reflecting different perceptions of market conditions across the supply chain.
Manager Index Under Broad Pressure, Operational Activity Weakens
According to monitoring data from the China National Textile and Apparel Council Circulation Branch, the manager sentiment index for May stood at 49.35, down 1.46 percentage points from the previous month, staying below the 50 boom-bust line for two consecutive months. Among sub-indicators, the total business volume index (49.03), logistics shipment volume index (48.39), and foot traffic index (48.39) all fell below the line, with further declines from prior values. Logistics and foot traffic indices each dropped by 2.26 percentage points, becoming the main drag on the overall index.
The store opening rate index rose counter-cyclically by 1.61 percentage points to 49.03, but its absolute value remained below the boom-bust threshold, indicating that while vacancy rates improved slightly, overall operational activity in the markets remained insufficient. The rental index fell by 0.97 percentage points to 50.32, still barely above the line, reflecting weakened bargaining power on rents.
For buyers, this means the pace of spot supply in professional markets may slow, and the dual decline in logistics and foot traffic will further compress immediate trading opportunities within markets.
Merchant Side: Cost Relief but Profit and Inventory Pressures Coexist
Unlike the broad decline on the manager side, the merchant sentiment index edged up by 0.02 percentage points to 49.73, appearing stable but masking internal divergence. The sales volume index (49.11) and profit index (48.97) both fell below the boom-bust line, dropping by 0.48 percentage points each, indicating simultaneous narrowing of terminal sales and profit margins.
A positive signal came from the cost side: the comprehensive cost index rose by 1.64 percentage points to 50.82, returning above the boom-bust line after several months, meaning pressure from raw materials, labor, and other operating costs eased for merchants. However, the inventory index fell by 0.55 percentage points to 49.79, slipping below the line, suggesting slower destocking and rising overstock risks.
The average selling price index rose counter-cyclically by 0.68 percentage points to 49.52, still below the boom-bust threshold but narrowing its decline, implying merchants are becoming more conservative on pricing and reluctant to offer further discounts. This combination of 'costs down, prices stable, sales down' points to a stalemate phase with weak supply and demand.
E-commerce Growth Slows, Offline Channels Bear More Pressure
The e-commerce sales index is a noteworthy sub-indicator in this dataset. The manager e-commerce sales index fell by 3.22 percentage points to 50.97, while the merchant e-commerce sales index dropped by 0.75 percentage points to 50.14. Both remain above the boom-bust line, but growth has clearly decelerated. Only 16.13% of professional markets reported increased e-commerce sales in May, a sharp drop of 25.81 percentage points from the prior month; the share of merchants with e-commerce growth fell to just 1.37%.
This suggests that the online channel, previously a growth engine, is hitting a bottleneck. For textile fabric and apparel wholesalers relying on B2B e-commerce platforms, the fading traffic dividend requires more precise product selection and faster supply chain response to sustain growth.
Forward-Looking Indices Remain Optimistic, June May Offer a Recovery Window
Despite weak May data, both managers and merchants hold forward-looking indices above 50 for June. The manager forward-looking index is 53.23, and the merchant forward-looking index is 50.14, indicating market expectations that the off-season effect will gradually fade, with a modest rebound possible in June.
This confidence may stem from several factors: first, cost improvements give merchants room to adjust pricing; second, while e-commerce growth slows, base effects still provide stable traffic; third, rigid demand for summer fabrics and quick-response orders is likely to be released in June.