The specialized market sentiment index for May 2026 has shown an unusual divergence: the manager index fell to 49.35, down 1.46 points from April, while the merchant index edged up to 49.73, a slight increase of 0.02 points. Both indices remain below the 50 threshold, indicating overall contraction, but internal structural differences are emerging.
Manager Side Under Pressure: Declining Foot Traffic and Logistics, Slowing E-commerce
From the manager perspective, May brought a noticeable cooling. The total sales index dropped to 49.03, down 1.62 points month-on-month; the logistics volume and foot traffic indices both fell to 48.39, each declining by 2.26 points. All three core indicators falling below 50 point to weakened actual transaction activity. Notably, the store opening rate index rose countercyclically by 1.61 points to 49.03, suggesting that merchants are maintaining operations despite lower footfall.
The rent index declined 0.97 points to 50.32, still above the 50 line, indicating no large-scale rent cuts yet but marginal loosening. The most striking figure is the e-commerce sales index: the manager-side e-commerce index plunged 3.22 points to 50.97, while the merchant-side index fell 0.75 points to 50.14. Although both remain above 50, the slowdown is clear, signaling diminishing marginal gains from online channels.
Merchant Resilience: Eased Costs but Rising Inventory Risk
Unlike the broad pressure on managers, merchant-side data reveals a more complex picture. The sales volume index fell 0.48 points to 49.11, while the average selling price index rose 0.68 points to 49.52, suggesting merchants are raising prices to offset volume declines. The profit index slipped 0.48 points to 48.97, but the comprehensive cost index jumped 1.64 points to 50.82, breaking above 50, meaning raw material and labor cost pressures eased significantly in May.
The inventory index fell 0.55 points to 49.79, dropping below 50, indicating rising inventory pressure. This reveals a key contradiction: cost improvements have not translated into profit growth due to declining sales, leading to inventory buildup. Merchants have limited pricing power, with price increases constrained by weak end-demand.
Forward-Looking Indices Above 50: Cautious Optimism for June
Despite weak actual data in May, all forward-looking indices remain above 50: the manager next-month index is 53.23, the manager next-month business environment index is 52.90; the merchant next-month index is 50.14, and its business environment index is 50.07. This indicates industry confidence in a June recovery, possibly driven by seasonal summer procurement or policy expectations. However, the merchant-side indices barely exceed the threshold, suggesting fragile confidence.
From an industry transmission perspective, specialized markets serve as the circulation hub for textile and apparel. The May data indicates that end-consumption has not yet bottomed out, but cost improvements provide breathing room for merchants. For fabric and accessory buyers, this means expanded bargaining space; for exporters, vigilance is needed regarding the interplay between overseas order fluctuations and domestic inventory cycles.