At the noon close on June 26, the textile raw material futures sector showed clear divergence: the staple fiber main contract (2608) fell 1.23% to 6,920 yuan/ton, the largest decline among all textile-related varieties; cotton yarn (2609) closed at 22,135 yuan/ton, down 0.11%; cotton (2609) at 15,705 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. PTA (2609) also weakened to 5,458 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.22%; while bottle-grade PET chips (2609) bucked the trend, rising 0.12% to 6,638 yuan/ton. The signals behind these numbers are more significant than the surface-level changes.
Double Squeeze from Cost Pass-Through and Demand Weakness The 1.23% single-day drop in staple fiber results from both upstream cost pressures and downstream demand weakness. On the cost side, PTA, the direct raw material for staple fiber, fell 0.22% to 5,458 points, hovering at low levels for several days. PTA's weakness stems from pressure on upstream PX prices due to volatile international oil prices, which have compressed margins in the naphtha-PX chain, loosening cost support from the bottom up. Industry data shows that current PTA processing fees have been squeezed to around 300 yuan/ton, with some plants approaching breakeven.
More critically, demand is weak. June is traditionally an off-season for textiles, with downstream weaving factory operating rates generally falling below 60%. The comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped about 8 percentage points from its May peak, while greige fabric inventories continue to accumulate. As a midstream product, staple fiber is constrained both by upstream PTA prices and directly faces weak purchasing willingness for downstream polyester yarn and polyester-cotton blends. When end-user orders are insufficient and mills prefer to reduce loads rather than restock, inventory pressure on staple fiber quickly translates into selling pressure on the futures market.
Resilience in Cotton Varieties Hides Underlying Concerns The declines of only 0.10% and 0.11% in cotton and cotton yarn appear resilient, but imply different pricing logic. For cotton, weather conditions in Xinjiang are generally normal, and market expectations for new-season production have not been significantly adjusted. Although the national reserve cotton release policy has not yet been formally implemented, the market has already partially priced in the negative impact. More importantly, cotton futures have fallen over 1,500 yuan/ton from their previous highs, reducing the momentum for further short selling, resulting in a narrow range-bound pattern.
Cotton yarn's performance is closer to industrial reality. The current market is in a "price without volume" state: while mills have not significantly cut offers, actual transactions often involve hidden concessions. Inventory days for regular products like OE yarn and C32S have risen to over 25 days, higher than the 20 days seen last year. Open interest in cotton yarn futures has been shrinking, indicating reduced capital participation as the market waits for clearer directional signals.
Bottle-Grade PET Defies the Trend: Structural Divergence in Polyester Against the backdrop of falling staple fiber and PTA, bottle-grade PET chips (bottle-grade polyester chips) rose 0.12% to 6,638 yuan/ton, standing out sharply. This is no accident. The downstream demand for bottle chips comes mainly from beverage bottles, food containers, and other packaging sectors, which have a highly mismatched consumption cycle with textiles. June-August is the peak season for bottled water and carbonated drinks, with bottle-chip plants enjoying ample orders and operating rates above 90%.
This divergence reveals an important trend: a valuation gap is opening within the polyester chain between non-textile demand and textile demand. Bottle chips benefit from rigid demand support, while textile-use varieties like staple fiber and filament yarn are trapped in dual weakness from both garment exports and domestic demand. For polyester plants, flexibility in production line allocation becomes critical: those that can switch between textile and bottle-grade capacity are better positioned to withstand current risks.
Industrial Impact: Buying Window or Mid-Downside? The break below 7,000 yuan/ton for staple fiber appears to be a cost reduction benefit for downstream weaving and traders. However, a sober assessment is needed: does this price decline represent a cyclical bottom or the beginning of a new downward cycle?
From an inventory cycle perspective, staple fiber plant equity inventories have risen from 8 days in May to about 12 days currently, and are still accumulating. PTA social inventories remain above 3 million tons, with destocking far slower than expected. Without substantial recovery in end-user orders, midstream and upstream inventory pressure cannot be relieved through price increases. This suggests that raw material prices still have room to fall further in the short term.
For buyers, the focus should not be on absolute price levels but on whether the rate of decline has bottomed out. A phased purchasing strategy is recommended, avoiding one-time bottom-fishing during a downtrend.