Acrylonitrile prices are oscillating at high levels. As of June 26, the domestic benchmark price stood at 10,333.33 yuan/ton, down 1.90% from the previous trading day but up 0.49% from the beginning of the month. This seemingly contradictory data reflects the intense tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces in the current market.
Prices at High Levels, Annual Volatility Exceeds Expectations
From an annual perspective, acrylonitrile prices have ranged from a low of 7,000 yuan/ton to a high of 11,766.67 yuan/ton over the past year, a spread of more than 4,700 yuan. The current price of 10,333 yuan/ton sits in the mid-to-high range, 3,333 yuan above the yearly low and only 1,433 yuan shy of the peak. The annual average price of 8,605.83 yuan means the current level is about 20% above the mean.
What does this price level mean for the industry? For upstream producers, profit margins remain acceptable, but the 1.90% daily drop signals a potential short-term correction. For downstream buyers, high raw material costs are eroding processing margins, especially in sectors like acrylic fiber and ABS resin, where acrylonitrile is a key input.
Cost Pass-Through Accelerates, Downstream Industries Face Shakeout
Acrylonitrile is the core raw material for acrylic fiber, and its price volatility directly impacts production costs. Operating rates in the acrylic fiber sector are already showing subtle changes, with some small and medium-sized mills actively reducing output or postponing raw material purchases due to their inability to absorb cost increases. Meanwhile, the ABS resin industry is also feeling the pressure, as modified plastics companies face a scissors gap between costs and end-market orders.
Notably, acrylonitrile prices have rebounded nearly 48% from last year's low of 7,000 yuan/ton, but downstream product prices have not kept pace. This widening price scissors gap could force some less competitive small enterprises out of the market, accelerating industry consolidation. Texcircle believes the next three months will be a critical window to observe the redistribution of profits along the supply chain.
Supply-Demand Fundamentals: Q3 Could Be a Turning Point
On the supply side, the major maintenance season for domestic acrylonitrile plants has largely ended, with operating rates recovering to over 80%. However, the pace of new capacity additions remains uncertain, as some projects scheduled for the second half of the year may be delayed, limiting supply elasticity.
On the demand side, acrylic fiber enters its traditional off-season, with orders in home textiles and apparel weakening month-on-month. The downstream automotive and home appliance sectors for ABS resin remain stable, but slowing export growth limits strong demand impetus. Overall, the Q3 supply-demand landscape leans toward loosening, with downward price potential, though the bottom support remains in the 8,000-9,000 yuan/ton range.