Viscose staple fiber prices are approaching a critical psychological and cost threshold. According to publicly available industry data on June 26, the benchmark price of viscose staple fiber 1.2D stood at 14,200 CNY/ton, up 1% from the beginning of the month and 1,400 CNY/ton higher than the annual low of 12,800 CNY/ton. This price sits at the highest point of its one-year range and also marks a three-year peak.
Supply-Demand Logic Behind the High Price
Annual statistics show that viscose staple fiber prices have climbed from a low of 12,800 CNY/ton to 14,200 CNY/ton over the past year, with a median of 13,500 CNY/ton and an average of 13,184.59 CNY/ton. The current price exceeds the average by approximately 1,015 CNY/ton, meaning downstream buyers who did not lock in inventory at lower levels are now facing significant cost accumulation.
This price trend is not an isolated event. The main raw material for viscose staple fiber is dissolving pulp, which accounts for over 60% of production costs. Recently, international dissolving pulp prices have remained firm, combined with temporary supply tightness due to maintenance at some domestic viscose staple fiber plants, collectively pushing up spot prices. From an industrial belt perspective, major producing regions such as Xinjiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu have seen faster shipment schedules, with plant inventories at relatively low levels.
Downstream Pass-Through: Rayon Yarn and Fabric Under Pressure
The high price of viscose staple fiber directly impacts the rayon yarn and rayon fabric segments. Rayon yarn mills are caught between rising raw material costs and limited terminal orders—weaving mills are reluctant to accept high-priced yarn, and if yarn mills do not raise their quotes, profit margins will be further compressed. Industry data indicates that rayon yarn price increases have significantly lagged behind raw material gains, meaning profits are concentrating upstream.
For buyers, the current juncture presents a dilemma: chasing high prices risks inventory write-downs if prices correct, while delaying purchases could lead to supply shortages. Historically, viscose staple fiber prices near three-year highs tend to undergo phased adjustments, but the extent depends on dissolving pulp price trends and downstream order sustainability.
Substitution Effects and Macro Variables
Viscose staple fiber has a certain substitution relationship with cotton and polyester staple fiber. Currently, viscose staple fiber prices are higher than polyester staple fiber of the same specification, and the widening gap may prompt some blended fabric mills to adjust their formulas, increasing the use of polyester staple fiber. Cotton price trends are also a key reference—if cotton prices remain relatively low, the cost-effectiveness advantage of rayon yarn will diminish, curbing viscose staple fiber demand.
On the policy front, attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection-related production restrictions on viscose staple fiber capacity. Some provinces may implement staggered production for high-energy-consuming industries during peak summer electricity demand, which could further tighten supply. Additionally, RMB exchange rate fluctuations affecting imported dissolving pulp costs cannot be ignored.