In the first four months of 2026, the economic performance data of China's textile industry emerged. The industrial value-added growth rate rebounded to 3.8%, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2025, but still below the manufacturing average of 4.5%. Behind these figures lies the industry's real picture: capacity expansion willingness is recovering, but profit statement repair still needs time.
Investment Recovery: From Caution to Exploration
Fixed asset investment became the biggest highlight of the first quarter. In the first four months of 2026, textile industry fixed asset investment grew by 12.1% year-on-year, an increase of 8.6 percentage points from the same period in 2025. Among them, technical renovation projects in eastern coastal industrial belts such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong accounted for over 60%, pointing to upgrades of existing capacity rather than simple expansion. The chemical fiber sector saw investment growth of 18.7%, closely linked to low bulk raw material prices like PTA and polyester filament—factories are rushing to build new lines during the raw material cost window to lock in cost advantages for the next three years.
However, the investment recovery is not universal. Central China regions like Hubei and Henan saw investment growth of only 5.2%, constrained by labor shortages and environmental regulations. Overall industry investment is still 7% lower than in the same period of 2021, indicating that corporate decision-makers remain cautious about long-cycle capacity expansion.
Domestic Demand Resilience: Dual Validation of Retail and Revenue
Among total retail sales of consumer goods, retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textile products above the designated size grew by 4.6% year-on-year, slowing by 1.2 percentage points from the same period in 2025, but the absolute value still set a record high for the period. E-commerce channel growth slowed to 8.3%, while offline department stores and shopping malls grew by 5.7%, reflecting a shift from 'impulsive online shopping' to 'experience-based offline consumption.'
Revenue of textile enterprises above the designated size grew by 3.1% year-on-year, slower than retail growth, indicating continued destocking in channel inventories. Total profit grew by 7.4%, with the profit margin recovering to 3.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from the same period in 2025. Profit repair mainly came from the chemical fiber sector—benefiting from falling crude oil prices, the price spread for polyester and nylon expanded, and chemical fiber industry profit grew by 22.1%. However, the profit margin for cotton spinning and printing/dyeing sectors was only 1.8%, with small and medium enterprises still struggling near the breakeven line.
Export Divergence: Emerging Markets and Order Transfer
From January to April 2026, total textile and apparel exports fell by 0.8% year-on-year in USD terms, but when excluding exchange rate fluctuations, RMB-denominated exports edged up 0.3%. Export structure showed clear divergence: exports to ASEAN grew by 8.5%, mainly driven by yarn and fabric orders transferred to Vietnam and Indonesia; exports to the EU fell by 4.2%, impacted by rising compliance costs during the 'carbon tariff' transition period; exports to the US fell by 1.5%, but cross-border e-commerce direct shipping grew by 27%, partially offsetting the decline in traditional trade.
Worth noting is that the share of textile intermediate products (yarn, fabric) in total exports rose to 48%, up 3 percentage points from the same period in 2025. This suggests China's textile industry is transforming from a 'garment export giant' to a 'fabric supply hub'—upstream bargaining power is strengthening, but the trend of downstream garment orders migrating to Southeast Asia has not reversed.