Exports fell 14.2% while imports surged 46.5%—the first five months of 2025 painted a starkly divided picture for China's down industry. In May alone, import value hit $87.09 million, a 66% year-on-year spike, accelerating sharply from April's 15.2% growth. This divergence is not mere market noise; it reflects a deep alignment between global consumption shifts and China's domestic upgrade.
Export Pressure: Cyclical Headwinds, but Structural Improvement Continues
Customs data shows total export value from January to May reached approximately $650 million, down 14.2% year-on-year, with the decline widening slightly from the first four months. The primary drag is the ongoing destocking cycle in Western markets and slower-than-expected demand from emerging economies in Southeast Asia. However, product mix is improving: companies are pivoting toward high-fill-power, high-cleanliness functional down products, while low-end volume orders are shrinking faster. This suggests the export decline is more about 'volume reduction with stable prices' rather than a broad retreat. For exporters, short-term pain is unavoidable, but the long-term direction of product iteration remains intact.
Import Boom: Raw Down and Garments Both Surge, High-End Demand as Main Engine
Import performance tells the opposite story. Total import value reached $350 million in the first five months, up 46.5%. Raw down imports alone hit $170 million, a 70.3% surge, while volume grew only 13.1%. The value-to-volume gap underscores a sharp rise in international premium down prices. This is driven by two forces: tight global supply of high-quality white goose and duck down from key regions like Poland and Hungary, and increased procurement by domestic brands such as Bosideng and Anta, forcing companies to source higher-priced foreign raw materials.
Down garment imports also posted strong growth. From January to May, 2.017 million pieces were imported, valued at $180 million, up 25.3% and 29.9% respectively. May alone saw 405,000 pieces, a 39.9% volume increase and 41.8% value increase. These imports are predominantly from high-end overseas brands like Canada Goose and Moncler, with unit prices typically above $700. The data indicates that domestic demand for premium down apparel has shifted from 'novelty' to 'normalized,' providing sustained growth space for high-end products.
Industry Logic Behind the Divergence: From Export Dependence to Dual Circulation
The hot-cold contrast in trade data is an inevitable byproduct of the industry's upgrading phase. For the past decade, China's down sector relied heavily on export processing, yielding thin margins and weak bargaining power. Now, with rising domestic purchasing power and brand awareness, the local market is absorbing high-end demand, and import data quantifies this shift. Meanwhile, export pressures are forcing quality upgrades—if overseas markets only reward low prices, there is no incentive to improve; the current demand contraction creates a window to 'weed out the weak.'
For buyers and factories, this landscape implies two core changes: first, the scarcity of premium raw materials will further push up costs, making long-term contracts and supply diversification essential; second, the premiumization trend in the domestic market is irreversible, and products with high fill power and RDS certification will command higher margins.