China's down industry is experiencing a rare contrast of cold and heat. According to the latest public data from China Customs, total exports from January to May 2026 reached approximately $650 million, down 14.2% year-on-year. Meanwhile, imports surged to $350 million, up 46.5% YoY. In May alone, imports hit $87.09 million, with the growth rate jumping from 15.2% in April to 66.0%.
This divergence reflects two forces: a cyclical downturn in overseas consumption and an accelerating upgrade in domestic demand. Export pressure is not sudden—the decline was already visible in the January-April period and widened in May, indicating persistent external weakness. The import surge, especially the leap in May, suggests domestic market absorption capacity is rapidly strengthening, and this trend is not a short-term fluctuation.
Raw Materials: Price Signals Are Stronger Than Volume Signals
Among imports, raw down data is most analytically valuable. From January to May, cumulative raw down imports were 15,000 tons, up 13.1% YoY, but the corresponding import value was $170 million, surging 70.3% YoY. In May alone, import volume grew only 9.5%, but import value soared 118.6%. The value growth far exceeding volume growth directly points to a sharp rise in international prices for premium raw down.
This means two things. First, the global supply of high-quality down is tightening, creating a seller's market where pricing power tilts toward resource holders. Second, domestic downstream brands and manufacturers continue to expand demand for high-quality raw materials, becoming less price-sensitive. Companies are willing to pay a higher premium for better fill power, cleanliness, and thermal performance. This is not simple restocking but a structural upgrade.
For procurement departments, rising raw material costs are a certainty. In the second half of 2026, the landed cost of imported raw down will likely continue climbing, squeezing margins on mid-to-low-end products but accelerating industry consolidation. Only companies that can pass on costs to end prices or absorb them through process optimization will remain competitive.
Finished Products: Imported Down Jackets Surge, Domestic Brands Face Pressure
Imports of down garments also surged. From January to May, cumulative imports were 2.017 million pieces, up 25.3% YoY, with an import value of $180 million, up 29.9% YoY. In May alone, 405,000 pieces were imported, valued at $49.99 million, representing YoY increases of 39.9% and 41.8%, respectively. The fact that value growth slightly outpaced volume growth indicates a modest rise in average unit prices.
Where are these imported down jackets going? Mostly to high-end shopping malls in first-tier cities, cross-border e-commerce flagship stores, and specialized outdoor channels. Domestic consumers' rising demand for overseas premium down brands reflects a pursuit of better thermal experience and superior design. This puts dual pressure on domestic brands: they must match international standards in raw material quality while closing the gap in brand premium and design innovation.
From an industrial cluster perspective, traditional down hubs like Hangzhou and Changshu have begun adjusting product mixes, increasing procurement of high-fill-power goose down and waterproof breathable fabrics while reducing production of standard duck down products. This shows that upstream raw material procurement decisions are already responding to downstream demand shifts.
Structural Opportunities Amid Market Divergence
The combination of declining exports and surging imports is not merely a market temperature difference but a signal of accelerated transformation from global OEM to domestic-demand-driven, high-end development. The 14.2% export decline partly reflects overseas consumers cutting discretionary spending due to inflation, but also domestic companies voluntarily reducing low-margin orders to shift capacity toward domestic and high-end export markets.
The 46.5% import growth clearly maps the path of domestic upgrade: from 'any down will do' to 'good down' to 'premium down garments.' This path has profound implications across the supply chain. Raw material traders need to reassess sourcing strategies and secure long-term supply. Fabric suppliers should develop high-performance anti-down-leakage and lightweight materials. Garment manufacturers must upgrade sewing techniques and quality standards to serve both domestic and international premium brands.