Textile Raw Material Market Accelerates Divergence in Late June: Cotton Yarn Edges Up Cannot Mask Deep Correction in Chemical Fiber Chain

Data from the last week of June 2026 reveals an accelerating divergence in the textile raw material market. According to public data from the China National Textile and Apparel Council, among 17 monitored textile raw material varieties, only cotton yarn 21S and 32S posted week-on-week gains of 0.14% and 0.10% respectively. In stark contrast, 13 varieties declined, with acrylonitrile and PTA plummeting 6.92% and 5.10% respectively. The overall sector averaged a weekly decline of 1.65%.

Cotton Yarn's Isolated Rally

The marginal uptick in cotton yarn prices, against a broad bearish backdrop, is underpinned by short-term supply-demand dynamics in the cotton market. Data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System indicates a year-on-year reduction in domestic cotton output for the 2025/2026 season, while industrial cotton inventories at textile mills remain near historical lows, creating restocking demand that supports prices. The 21S and 32S counts, as workhorse varieties, enjoy relatively stable offtake from weaving mills. However, weekly gains of 0.14% and 0.10% are negligible in absolute terms and more likely reflect a temporary stabilization within a downward bias rather than a trend reversal.

Deep Correction in the Chemical Fiber Chain

The correction in chemical fiber raw materials is far more severe. Acrylonitrile slumped 6.92% in a single week, PTA fell over 5%, and the entire polyester filament family (POY, FDY, DTY) declined between 1.62% and 2.60%. This signifies a systemic price revaluation across the petrochemical-to-polyester chain—from upstream monomers to midstream polymers and downstream spinning. The plunge in acrylonitrile directly impacts downstream sectors like acrylic fiber and ABS resin, while the sharp drop in PTA compresses processing margins for polyester filament. For industrial clusters in Shengze and Changxing, such volatility elevates inventory depreciation risks, prompting weavers to adopt hand-to-mouth purchasing, further depressing raw material demand.

Silk and Spandex: Two Varieties to Watch

Raw silk prices fell nearly 2% week-on-week and are down 10.12% year-on-year, reflecting persistently weak end-consumer demand in the silk sector. Spring cocoon procurement prices in major producing regions like Guangxi and Zhejiang have already softened, squeezing silk reeling mills between high cocoon costs and low silk prices. Meanwhile, spandex—down only 0.56% this week—still shows a year-on-year gain of 21.09%, making it one of the few varieties in high-price territory. This premium is linked to a slower pace of new capacity additions in recent years, but downstream weavers are already exploring alternatives or reducing spandex content, which could cap long-term demand.

Industry Implications of Market Divergence

The current price divergence reflects the true fundamentals of supply and demand across different segments. Cotton yarn's mild rise is a short-term reaction to expected supply contraction, while the broad chemical fiber sell-off results from a combination of overcapacity and weak demand. PTA social inventories have risen for consecutive weeks, and polyester filament sales-to-output ratios have stayed below 60%. These data points point to a single conclusion: slowing export growth in finished textile and apparel, coupled with lackluster domestic consumption recovery, is persistently weakening the willingness of middle-stream players to hold inventory.

Practical Recommendations

For Procurement Managers - Delay chemical fiber raw material purchases where possible; PTA and polyester filament still have room to fall. Break large orders into smaller, more frequent batches to mitigate inventory depreciation risk. - Maintain normal procurement pace for cotton yarn, but monitor weather conditions ahead of the new cotton crop and reserve policy changes. Avoid chasing price spikes driven by short-term supply scares.

For Foreign Trade Companies - For export orders involving chemical fiber fabrics, include price adjustment clauses in contracts linked to raw material fluctuations to prevent finished product price inversions caused by raw material slumps. - Monitor RMB exchange rate movements and ocean freight costs. While lower raw material prices reduce export product costs, guard against overseas buyers using the situation to demand further price concessions.