Down Market's Twofold Tale: Exports Fall 14% While Imports Surge 66%

In the first five months of 2025, China's down industry recorded a starkly divided trade performance: total exports fell 14.2% year-on-year to $650 million, while imports surged 46.5% to $350 million. In May alone, imports soared 66.0% to $87.093 million. This widening gap between shrinking exports and accelerating imports is reshaping the sector's fundamentals.

Export Weakness: A Mirror of Overseas Consumption Cycles

The export downturn is no surprise. The cumulative 14.2% decline from January to May, with the drop deepening compared to the first four months, signals that external markets have yet to bottom out. High inflation and destocking cycles in major Western consumer markets are dampening demand for seasonal, non-essential items like down products. For Chinese exporters, this marks the end of a growth model heavily reliant on overseas orders.

Despite the volume slump, the industry's product upgrade trajectory remains intact. Domestic firms continue to innovate in functional fabrics and eco-friendly fillings, but these structural advantages have not yet translated into an export rebound amid short-term demand softness.

Import Boom: A Full-Chain Upgrade from Raw Materials to Finished Goods

In stark contrast, the import side is experiencing a surge driven by domestic demand. The divergence in raw down imports is particularly telling: volume grew only 13.1% to 15,000 tons, but value skyrocketed 70.3% to $170 million. In May, volume rose a mere 9.5%, while value jumped 118.6%. This underscores that prices for high-quality international raw down are at elevated levels, and downstream demand for premium materials continues to expand.

Simultaneously, down garment imports maintained double-digit growth. From January to May, 2.017 million pieces were imported, with value up 29.9%; May alone saw a 39.9% volume increase and a 41.8% value rise. This reflects a clear trend: China's down market is shifting from low-end volume to high-quality, high-price segments, and domestic supply has yet to fully meet this upgrade.

Industry Transmission: Price Expectations and Procurement Strategy Reset

Rising raw material import prices directly impact production costs. For factories reliant on premium imported goose or duck down, cost escalation is now a given. Companies must either pass costs to brand clients, raising final product prices, or seek alternatives through blending ratios, formulations, or processes to reduce dependence on expensive imports.

From a procurement perspective, brands and traders need to reassess inventory cycles. High and tight global supply means waiting for price drops carries greater risk. Securing long-term contracts and diversifying sourcing bases—such as emerging regions in Eastern Europe or Southeast Asia—will be key moves for the second half of 2025.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Monitor international raw down prices closely; given the high-price environment, consider signing quarterly or semi-annual framework agreements with reliable suppliers to lock in costs. - Evaluate blending technologies to adjust the ratio of domestic versus imported raw materials while maintaining quality standards, mitigating price volatility from single sources. - For premium down garments, engage early in overseas brands' new product development cycles to leverage China's consumption upgrade trend for favorable distribution terms.

For Exporters - Actively explore emerging markets in ASEAN, the Middle East, and Latin America, where down consumption is still rising, to partially offset declining orders from Europe and the U.S. - Upgrade product mix from low-value raw down exports to semi-finished (e.g., washed down, antibacterial down) or finished goods (e.g., duvets, jackets) to enhance pricing power. - Use the window of high import raw material costs to promote the cost-effectiveness of domestic high-quality down to overseas customers, seeking new orders via a reverse export strategy.