Divergence Intensifies in Textile Raw Material Prices: Cotton Yarn Edges Up vs Acrylonitrile Plunges

In the 25th week of 2026, the textile commodity price tracker revealed a core contradiction: downstream cotton yarn prices rebounded marginally, while upstream chemical fiber raw materials suffered a collective heavy blow. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose by only 0.14% and 0.10% week-on-week, while acrylonitrile and PTA plunged 6.92% and 5.10% respectively. The overall sector average decline was 1.65%, indicating a broadly bearish market but with extreme divergence among varieties.

Raw Material Side: Chemical Fiber Chain Hit by Both Cost and Demand

Acrylonitrile led the decline with a 6.92% weekly drop, closing at 10,083.33 yuan/ton. Despite a 25% year-on-year increase, the sharp weekly fall suggests that previous highs are unsustainable. This aligns with PTA's 5.10% decline, jointly dragging down the cost center of the polyester and acrylic fiber chains. All polyester filament yarn varieties—POY, FDY, DTY—fell between 1.62% and 2.60%, while polyester staple fiber and polyester yarn dropped 0.91% and 1.79% respectively. This is not an isolated event but a typical transmission of upstream raw material (PX, propylene) price weakness downstream.

Cotton prices also weakened, falling 1.23% week-on-week to 17,417.67 yuan/ton, with the year-on-year gain narrowing to 16.08%. The decline in cotton, combined with cheaper chemical fiber substitutes, further dampened textile mills' purchasing appetite. Raw silk prices were the only variety to show a negative year-on-year change (-10.12%), with a weekly drop of 1.99%, reflecting weak silk consumption transmitted to raw material pricing.

Cotton Yarn's Countertrend Rise: Short-Term Restocking or Trend Reversal?

Amid widespread declines, cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose 0.14% and 0.10% respectively, closing at 23,400 yuan/ton and 24,725 yuan/ton, with year-on-year gains of 7.50% and 6.57%. This marginal rise is more likely a concentrated restocking move by downstream weaving mills after last week's low prices, rather than a genuine recovery in end demand. Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices were flat, indicating that chemical fiber substitutes did not follow cotton yarn's uptick, and market confidence remains fragile.

Feedback from industrial clusters such as Shengze and Nantong shows that operating rates at major weaving hubs remain stable, but new orders are mostly short-term and small-lot, with grey fabric inventory digestion not accelerating. The slight rise in cotton yarn lacks volume support; once restocking ends, prices may resume their downtrend.

Decline Structure: Weak Varieties May Brew Larger Adjustments

Varieties with declines exceeding 5% accounted for 11.8% of monitored items this week, concentrated in acrylonitrile and PTA. Notably, spandex and nylon series (DTY, POY, FDY) fell between 0.56% and 1.21%, less severe than chemical fiber raw materials, but their year-on-year gains remain high at 5.5% to 21.09%. These high year-on-year levels imply significant room for further correction. If upstream costs continue to decline, spandex and nylon prices may see a catch-down of 5%-8% in the next 2-4 weeks.

Polyester DTY fell 2.60%, the largest decline among polyester filament yarns, linked to slowing demand for high-elastic yarn in apparel fabrics. Export orders are lagging due to overseas inventory cycles, with Q3 order placement noticeably slower than last year, making polyester DTY the most stressed inventory item in the chain.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Current chemical fiber raw materials are in a downtrend; adopt a "buy-as-needed" strategy, avoid large contract lock-ins, and wait for acrylonitrile and PTA prices to stabilize before committing to medium-term contracts. - Although cotton yarn shows a slight uptick, sustainability is questionable. Small batches can cover urgent orders, but bulk purchases should be delayed until mid-July to gauge actual downstream demand recovery. - Watch for catch-down risks in spandex and nylon; if upstream costs continue to fall, these varieties may drop 5%-8% in July, presenting a good entry window.

For Exporters - Overseas clients are cautious on polyester fabric inquiries; build a 2%-3% raw material fluctuation buffer into quotes to protect margins on orders already booked. - With raw silk prices down 10.12% year-on-year, silk export products can leverage price advantages, but verify overseas end inventory levels to avoid a "price cuts still can't clear stock" scenario. - For export orders involving acrylonitrile derivatives (e.g., acrylic yarn), shorten quote validity to 7-10 days to hedge against raw material volatility.