In May 2026, China's total cotton yarn imports fell 14% month-on-month, but Pakistani yarn surged 80% year-on-year. This sharp contrast reveals a deep restructuring in global cotton trade: air-jet spun varieties are being squeezed out, while Pakistani carded yarn is filling the gap with cost advantages.
Import Structure Shift: Vietnam Slows, Pakistan Steps In
Customs data shows May 2026 cotton yarn imports at 172,200 tons, down 14.03% month-on-month but up 71.75% year-on-year. By origin, Vietnam and India shipped 82,050 tons and 22,430 tons, down 11.83% and 29.38% month-on-month respectively. Pakistan bucked the trend with a slight 0.01% increase to 21,310 tons, soaring 80.36% year-on-year.
Pakistan's market share jumped from about 7% last year to over 12%, while Vietnam's fell from nearly 50% to 47.6%. India's share shrank from over 18% to 13%. This shift is not short-term but the result of cost, currency, and trade policy factors.
Air-Jet Spinning Under Pressure: Order Gap and Tariff Fears
Air-jet spun yarn is the hardest hit. Feedback from mills in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong shows slow inquiries and transactions for bonded and forward cargo. Three core reasons:
- Southeast Asian order backflow to China is ending, with a high proportion of air-jet yarn in these orders.
- Domestic winter-spring fabric orders have not started, keeping mill operating rates low.
- Market expectations of US tariff increases under Section 301 in July have importers slowing purchases.
Meanwhile, FOB/CNF/CIF quotes from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India for air-jet yarn continue to edge down, as suppliers also seek to destock.
Pakistani Yarn's Edge: Rupee Depreciation and Weak Domestic Demand
Pakistani yarn's resilience is no accident. Feedback from a Zhejiang textile trading company highlights key variables:
Since mid-June, Pakistani cotton prices have fallen sharply. Mills have raised operating rates after energy and power supply crises eased, but weak domestic demand forces them to export more. The Pakistani rupee's medium-term depreciation against the dollar gives Pakistani yarn a growing price advantage in renminbi terms.
Moreover, the mature "two-way" trade model of cotton yarn and cloth between China and Pakistan, with stable cotton blending and faster land transport, further reduces costs and lead times. This keeps 8S-21S carded yarn shipments steady.
Supply Chain Impact: Waiting Strategy and Restocking Opportunity
For domestic mills and traders, current signals point to a wait-and-see strategy.
On one hand, air-jet yarn weakness may persist until Q3 unless downstream orders surprise. On the other, Pakistan's cost window is still widening—the rupee may depreciate further, and mill export pressure is accumulating, suggesting more FOB price cuts ahead.