The price of polyester FDY 150D/96F semi-dull yarn is experiencing a notable softening. According to industry public data, major producers quoted 8500-8750 yuan/ton on June 26, down roughly 2%-3% from late May highs. This is not isolated but a microcosm of the entire polyester chain's supply-demand imbalance.
Price Divergence: Strategy Split Among Leaders
Price spreads for the same specification have widened to 250 yuan/ton. Rongsheng Petrochemical and Zhejiang Juxing Chemical both quoted 8500 yuan/ton, while Tongkun Group held firm at 8750 yuan/ton and Tiansheng Chemical at 8710 yuan/ton. This divergence reflects differing views on inventory pressure and future expectations. Rongsheng and Juxing are actively cutting prices to destock; Tongkun and Tiansheng try to maintain margins, but downstream buying interest is limited.
Regionally, Hangzhou and Shaoxing remain key FDY production and sales hubs. Jia Bao Fiber (8510 yuan/ton) and Kaishi Group (8650 yuan/ton) occupy a middle ground, indicating that mid-sized firms are unwilling to fully follow low prices or charge a large premium, remaining in a 'wait-and-see' mode.
Supply-Demand Imbalance: Capacity Release Meets Off-Season
The fundamental driver of price weakness is dual pressure from supply and demand. In the first half of 2026, China added about 1.2 million tons/year of new polyester FDY capacity, mainly in Zhejiang and Jiangsu. These new lines ran at full capacity shortly after startup, boosting market supply by about 8% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, downstream weaving entered a traditional off-season. Since June, the operating rate of water-jet looms in Jiangsu-Zhejiang area dropped from 85% to around 78%, with inventory pressure transmitting upstream. Apparel export orders remained weak due to overseas destocking, especially for the conventional 150D variety, where demand contraction was more pronounced.
On the raw material side, PTA prices have been range-bound at 5800-6000 yuan/ton, providing insufficient cost support. Ample PX supply and weaker naphtha prices further undermined FDY's price floor.
Price Outlook: Near-Term Pressure, Mid-Term Policy Variables
In the near term, July-August is still the traditional slack season for textiles, and FDY prices will likely trade in a low range of 8400-8700 yuan/ton. If PTA breaks below 5800 yuan/ton, FDY could dip further to 8300 yuan/ton.
In the medium term, two variables deserve attention: whether the state will introduce textile industry stabilization policies (e.g., export tax rebate adjustments or environmental production caps), and the pace of overseas restocking. If European and American orders pick up in Q3, it could trigger a phase rebound in FDY prices.