The phased navigation recovery in the Strait of Hormuz has not truly eased the upstream raw material anxiety for the textile industry. On June 23, international crude oil prices fell about 1%, with WTI closing at $73.21/bbl and Brent at $76.85/bbl, with cumulative declines of nearly 16% in June. For the chemical fiber industry chain centered on PTA, ethylene glycol, and caprolactam, this appears to signal easing cost pressure. However, an analysis of structural shipping bottlenecks reveals that risk premiums have not been fully cleared and may resurge due to the fragile ceasefire.
Shipping Congestion Persists, Disrupting Raw Material Supply
As of June 23, 162 fully loaded crude oil tankers with trackable AIS signals were stranded in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, carrying about 120 million barrels. Many Iran-linked tankers and small product tankers have turned off positioning signals, becoming 'dark ships' outside statistics, meaning actual backlogs are far larger. Daily transit vessels remain under 60% of pre-conflict levels, with shipowners adopting cautious trial passages, creating a congestion deadlock.
This slow inventory digestion directly impacts global refinery feedstock schedules. For PX and MEG producers, crude supply interruptions quickly affect cracker operating rates and PTA/polyester output stability. In June 2025, China's polyester industry average operating rate fell from 88% pre-conflict to 82%, with some small chemical fiber plants forced to cut production due to delayed raw material arrivals.
High War Risk Insurance Costs Transmit to Chemical Fiber End-Products
War risk insurance rates in the Strait remain at 1% of vessel value, still 10 times the pre-conflict 0.1% rate. For a VLCC, one transit costs $2 million in insurance. This has not dropped significantly despite the ceasefire, making shipowners conservative—some small operators choose to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing voyage length and fuel costs.
For textiles, this means crude shipping costs won't normalize soon. Every $1/bbl increase in crude adds about RMB 80/ton to PTA costs and RMB 100/ton to polyester filament yarn. In Q2 2025, China's polyester POY prices rose from RMB 7,200/ton to RMB 7,800/ton, an 8.3% increase, with geopolitical premiums contributing about 40%. Cotton and viscose staple fiber, though less directly dependent on crude, see linked price increases due to substitution effects.
The 'False Facade' of Oil Price Correction: Rebound Risk Remains
Multiple analysts note the current oil price correction is more about short-term sentiment than a fundamental reversal. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts explicitly warned that the 60-day ceasefire is highly unstable, with deep disagreements unresolved. Any new attacks or diplomatic escalation could interrupt crude outflow again, quickly rekindling risk premiums.
For textile purchasing decisions, current PTA and polyester prices are relatively low, but this could be a 'price trap.' If the ceasefire collapses, oil could rebound above $80/bbl, driving chemical fiber prices up. In Q1 2025, Chinese textile firms that failed to lock PTA contract prices before the conflict incurred an extra RMB 120/ton in procurement costs, compressing profit margins by 2-3 percentage points.