In May 2026, China imported approximately 110,000 tons of cotton. This figure represents a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, or 35%, but a staggering year-on-year increase of 214.7%. Released by the General Administration of Customs, these data have sparked new discussions within the textile industry about supply patterns and cost transmission.
The Industry Context Behind the Import Surge
Taking a longer view, cumulative cotton imports from January to May 2026 reached about 830,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 89.9%. For the entire 2025/26 marketing year (September 2025 to May 2026), total imports stood at 1.33 million tons, up 44.6% year-on-year. This means that over the past nine months, China's textile industry has imported nearly half more cotton than during the same period last year.
This growth is not an isolated phenomenon. It points first to the rigid supply-demand gap in domestic cotton. Although production in the Xinjiang region has remained stable in recent years, the continuous expansion of textile capacity means domestic supply cannot fully meet demand. Imported cotton remains irreplaceable in terms of cost-effectiveness, grade stability, and suitability for some high-end yarn processes.
The month-on-month decline of 60,000 tons reflects adjustments in purchasing rhythm. May is typically a period of international cotton price volatility, and combined with the pace of quota releases and port inventory digestion, companies tend to make concentrated purchases during price dips, then enter a wait-and-see phase.
Transmission Effects Along the Industrial Chain
The sharp year-on-year increase in imports means that over 800,000 tons of overseas cotton have flooded into the Chinese market in the first five months of 2026. This directly pressures domestic cotton prices. The Xinjiang spot market has already softened, with some ginners becoming more willing to sell to avoid inventory buildup.
For midstream yarn mills, this situation has both advantages and disadvantages. Falling cotton prices directly reduce raw material costs, especially for mills producing regular counts like Ne 32 and Ne 40, potentially restoring profit margins. However, the downside is that price volatility increases uncertainty in order quotations. Foreign trade clients often demand fixed prices, forcing mills to frequently adjust their pricing strategies.
Downstream garment and home textile buyers remain cautious. If cotton yarn prices follow imported cotton downward, fabric costs could see a substantial decline in Q3. However, end brands typically have procurement cycles of three to six months, so the price dividend from the current import surge may not be reflected in garment quotes until late 2026.
Policy and Market Dynamics
The surge in imports is closely tied to quota policies. The scale of sliding-duty and processing trade quota releases in 2026 directly influences import pace. Current data suggests the policy side is open to imports, aiming to stabilize domestic cotton prices and secure raw material supply for the textile industry by diversifying sources.
However, this also raises a concern: if imports continue to surge, domestic cotton farmers' planting enthusiasm could be dampened. The 2026 new-crop planting area has yet to be announced, but given current import trends, the state may adjust its next round of reserve purchase policies to balance the price gap between domestic and imported cotton.
On the international trade front, arrivals of Brazilian, US, and Australian cotton are all on the rise. Brazilian cotton, with its price advantage and stable quality, is gradually eroding US cotton's market share in China. In the first five months of 2026, Brazilian cotton's share approached 40%, reshaping the supply pattern that was once dominated by US cotton.