The main cotton yarn contract closed at 22,210 points, up 0.52%; cotton closed at 15,730 points, up 0.32%. Meanwhile, staple fiber fell 0.14% to 6,936 points, bottle-grade chips dropped 0.21% to 6,620 points, and PTA edged up 0.04% to 5,468 points. This set of night trading data paints a clear picture of divergent trends in textile raw material markets: upstream cotton and cotton yarn are modestly stronger, while downstream chemical fiber varieties are under pressure.
Cotton Varieties: Cost Support Meets Demand Resilience
The simultaneous rise in cotton and cotton yarn is primarily driven by the recent sustained strength in ICE cotton futures. China Customs data shows that in May, China imported approximately 200,000 tons of cotton, a significant year-on-year increase, reflecting the rigid demand of domestic spinning mills for high-grade foreign cotton. Meanwhile, the Xinjiang cotton region has entered a critical growth period, and weather-induced production uncertainty provides speculative fodder for long funds. From an industry chain perspective, cotton yarn following cotton higher suggests that downstream weaving sector operating rates are still acceptable, with no widespread production cuts. However, cotton yarn's gain slightly lagged that of cotton, implying that spinning mills' profit margins are being squeezed. For buyers, current cotton yarn prices are at a relatively high level for the past three months, and the risk of chasing prices to build inventory is increasing.
Chemical Fiber Varieties: Loose Supply-Demand Weighs on Prices
The decline in staple fiber and bottle-grade chips, with PTA barely flat, clearly reflects the real predicament of the polyester industry chain. Industry public data shows that as of late June, the average operating rate of polyester plants remained around 88%, but the operating rate of downstream weaving and texturing enterprises has fallen from highs to around 70%. This means that polyester supply remains high while demand is weakening, with inventories accumulating upstream. The decline in staple fiber prices directly compresses the profit margins of polyester yarn, and some small and medium-sized yarn mills have begun adjusting their product mix, reducing pure polyester yarn output. For bottle-grade chips, the summer beverage consumption peak season did not bring the expected concentrated replenishment, as downstream soft drink companies adopted cautious purchasing strategies, leading to slow destocking of social inventories. PTA, as a raw material, is supported by PX costs and cannot fall deeply, but it also lacks upward momentum.
Cross-Variety Arbitrage Window and Industry Transmission
The pattern of cotton strength and chemical fiber weakness provides market participants with cross-variety arbitrage opportunities. The logic of buying cotton and selling polyester is reasonably justified under current fundamentals. However, it should be noted that the substitution relationship between cotton and chemical fibers is not entirely linear, and changes in the proportion of pure cotton versus blends in end-order often lag behind price fluctuations. For weaving enterprises, the current divergence in raw material costs means product pricing strategies need to be more refined: quotes for pure cotton orders can be moderately firm, while chemical fiber products face greater bargaining pressure. Export enterprises, in particular, need to monitor the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on imported cotton costs and the dynamics of anti-dumping investigations on chemical fiber products in overseas markets.