The bulk textile raw material market in the 25th week of 2026 showed a clear divergence: key chemical fiber upstream materials PTA and acrylonitrile plunged sharply, while cotton yarn posted marginal gains. This contrast is not accidental but reveals mismatched supply-demand pressures and cost transmission rhythms along the chain.

Chemical Fiber Upstream: Cost Collapse and Inventory Pressure

Acrylonitrile fell 6.92% week-on-week, followed by PTA with a 5.10% decline. Year-on-year, both remain elevated—25% and 12.8% higher respectively—suggesting the pullback is a high-level correction rather than a trend reversal. Acrylonitrile's rapid drop is mainly due to weak downstream demand from acrylic fiber and ABS resin, coupled with increased supply after maintenance restarts. For PTA, international crude oil prices weakened during the period, undermining PX support, while PTA social inventories accumulated for three consecutive weeks, intensifying factory selling pressure and accelerating spot price declines.

Polyester filament yarns all weakened in line with PTA: DTY fell 2.60%, POY 2.36%, and FDY 1.62%. Notably, polyester staple fiber dropped only 0.91%, showing relative resilience linked to rigid demand in blended spinning. Polyester yarn also slipped 1.79%, indicating cost pressure has transmitted to the yarn stage. Nylon chain was also under pressure, with FDY, POY, and DTY falling between 0.88% and 1.21%, driven by ample caprolactam supply.

Cotton Yarn: Dual Support from Cost and Demand Resilience

In contrast to the broad decline in chemical fiber products, cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose 0.14% and 0.10% respectively—modest gains but notable in a falling market. Despite a 1.23% drop in raw cotton prices, cotton yarn did not follow, indicating some buffer in yarn mills' raw material procurement and finished product pricing. Year-on-year, cotton yarn 21S and 32S are 7.5% and 6.57% higher, significantly outpacing the 16% year-on-year gain in raw cotton, suggesting improved profit margins in the spinning segment.

The resilience of cotton yarn stems from stable downstream demand. Though in the traditional off-season, rigid demand for pure cotton products in home textiles and apparel remains, especially for medium-count yarns with faster turnover. Additionally, some weaving mills with low raw material inventories have replenished after the cotton price dip, supporting cotton yarn prices. Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices were flat, reflecting a wait-and-see equilibrium in the man-made fiber market.

Raw Silk and Spandex: Divergent Logics

Raw silk fell 1.99% this week, with a year-on-year decline of 10.12%, the weakest among all textile commodities. This correlates with expectations of a bountiful silkworm cocoon harvest and slowing export growth of silk garments. Spandex fell 0.56% but remains 21.09% higher year-on-year, indicating that high spandex prices are being gradually digested, while the sustainability of downstream elastic fabric orders faces scrutiny.

Overall, the average weekly change for textile commodities was -1.65%, with declining varieties accounting for over 76% of monitored items. This data signals that the high-level correction in upstream raw materials is transmitting to midstream, but cotton yarn and other end-use-oriented products show independent trends.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Polyester filament yarns and PTA still have room to fall in the short term; adopt a batch-by-batch, small-lot procurement strategy to avoid locking in prices at highs. - Cotton yarn prices are currently firm, but weaker raw cotton may transmit in 2-3 weeks; consider slowing replenishment and waiting for a better entry point. - Monitor acrylic fiber price adjustments following acrylonitrile; if acrylonitrile continues to fall, acrylic yarn may see catch-up declines.

For Exporters - For chemical fiber fabric orders to Europe and the US, include price adjustment clauses in quotations to cope with PTA and polyester raw material volatility. - Maintain current quotations for cotton yarn and pure cotton products, but closely track new-crop cotton production expectations; if weather in major Northern Hemisphere producing countries is normal, cotton prices could weaken further. - Raw silk exporters should be wary of persistent price declines eroding margins; consider locking in partial order prices via forward contracts.

资料来源:中华纺织网查看原始资料
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