The navigation order in the Strait of Hormuz is shifting from 'complete blockage' to 'semi-paralysis'. As of June 23, 162 fully loaded crude oil tankers remained stranded in the waterway, carrying approximately 120 million barrels of crude. This figure does not include hidden 'dark ships' that have turned off their AIS signals, meaning the actual volume of oil awaiting evacuation is much larger than public statistics suggest.
For the textile industry, the significance of this strait goes far beyond energy prices. The production of chemical fiber raw materials such as PX, PTA, and polyester filament is heavily dependent on naphtha and crude oil. Any supply-side disruption will transmit down the chain from crude to naphtha, PX, PTA, and finally polyester, ultimately affecting fabric procurement costs.
Oil Price Correction is Emotional Relief, Not Fundamental Reversal
On June 23, WTI crude closed at $73.21 per barrel, and Brent crude at $76.85, both down about 1% on the day. The entire month of June saw a cumulative decline of nearly 16%, with the geopolitical risk premium accumulated since the conflict's outbreak rapidly retreating. However, this decline is more about the market pricing in the expectation of 'navigation recovery' than a fundamental improvement in supply-demand dynamics.
Structurally, the current oil pricing logic is fragile: the ceasefire lasts only 60 days, fundamental differences between parties remain unresolved, and any new attack in the strait or escalation of diplomatic conflict will quickly push the risk premium back up. For textile mills, this means the procurement window may be very short, and long-term stocking decisions should not be based on short-term price drops.
High War Risk Premiums Hinder Shipping Recovery
The core pain point preventing shipowners from fully returning to the Strait of Hormuz is insurance cost. Current war risk premiums in the strait, though down from the conflict peak, remain at around 1% of vessel value, compared to 0.1% before the conflict. For a VLCC, a single transit of the strait costs up to $2 million in war risk insurance.
High insurance costs have directly altered shipowner strategies: smaller operators are rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, while major players are only sending a few ships on trial runs. This results in daily transit volumes still below 60% of pre-conflict levels, creating a 'can't go, don't want to queue' congestion stalemate. As long as war risk premiums do not return to normal, global crude transport efficiency will remain impaired, affecting the arrival rhythm of raw materials at Asian refineries.
Transmission Path to Textile Supply Chains
There is a 2-4 week time lag between crude oil price changes and the cost of chemical fiber raw materials. If the current oil price decline holds for the next two weeks, PX and PTA prices may see a temporary easing, offering a brief procurement window for downstream weaving mills. However, given the fragile ceasefire, this window may be very limited.
From a regional perspective, chemical fiber clusters in Shaoxing, Xiaoshan, and Shengze consume huge daily amounts of PTA and MEG. Any supply interruption or sharp price fluctuation will directly impact loom utilization rates and order fulfillment capacity. Currently, companies should avoid bulk stocking during oil price drops and instead maintain low inventory, fast-turnover strategies to cope with potential geopolitical risk reversals.