China's cotton yarn import data for May 2026 reveals a striking divergence: total imports fell 14% month-on-month, yet shipments from Pakistan surged over 80% year-on-year. While open-end spun yarn volumes and prices both declined, Pakistan's yarn bucked the trend, signaling a structural shift in the low-count yarn supply chain.
Structural Divergence Behind the Data
According to China Customs statistics, May imports totaled approximately 172,200 tons, down 14% from April. Imports from Vietnam and India reached 82,050 tons and 22,430 tons respectively, falling 11.8% and 29.4% month-on-month. Pakistan, however, shipped about 21,310 tons, a marginal 0.01% increase month-on-month but an 80.4% surge year-on-year, making it the only major source to post growth.
This divergence is not random. In terms of product categories, inquiries and transactions for bonded and forward open-end spun yarn slowed markedly, with prices from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India edging down. In contrast, Pakistan's 8S to 21S siro-spun yarn maintained steady shipment volumes, indicating that its competitiveness is not dependent on a single product's short-term dynamics.
Three Drivers Behind Pakistan's Surge
Why has Pakistan's yarn gained ground in a shrinking import market? Industry analysis points to three core factors.
First, the medium- to long-term depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar directly lowers export costs. For Chinese buyers, this means more yarn per dollar, and many traders are waiting for opportune moments to replenish stocks.
Second, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have caused some low-margin, low-count garment orders from Southeast Asia to return to China. These orders are highly cost-sensitive, and Pakistan's yarn, with stable cotton blending and competitive pricing, fits the bill.
Third, after easing of the power supply crisis in Pakistan, mill operating rates have recovered. Combined with weak domestic demand, mills are pushing exports aggressively. Additionally, the growing two-way trade in cotton yarn and fabric between China and Pakistan reduces logistical friction.
Open-End Spun Yarn's Mixed Signals
In contrast to Pakistan's strength, the open-end spun yarn market is undergoing a correction. Mills and traders from Guangdong to Shandong report that Southeast Asian order transfers are winding down, domestic winter-spring orders have yet to materialize, and uncertainty over potential US Section 301 tariffs in July is dampening buying interest.
This suggests that the decline in open-end spun yarn is not a disappearance of demand but a deferral due to timing and policy risks. Once tariffs are clarified or domestic orders emerge, a restocking wave could follow—but by then, Pakistan's inventory advantage may face new tests.
Implications for Sourcing Decisions
The key takeaway is not short-term price fluctuation but a long-term migration of source-country competitiveness. Pakistan's rise is the result of currency trends, capacity recovery, and geopolitical factors—not a one-off event.