The pace of navigation recovery in the Strait of Hormuz has not accelerated as quickly as the market anticipated following the US-Iran 60-day temporary ceasefire. As of June 23, 162 fully loaded crude oil tankers with trackable AIS signals remained stranded in and around the strait, carrying approximately 120 million barrels of crude and refined products. More alarmingly, a large number of Iran-linked tankers and medium-sized product tankers have deliberately turned off their positioning signals, becoming 'dark ships,' meaning the actual backlog is far larger than public data suggests. This congestion stalemate continues to pressure global energy trade and the raw material costs of downstream chemical fiber supply chains.
Short-Term Oil Price Correction vs. Long-Term Geopolitical Risk
International crude oil markets reacted swiftly to the ceasefire agreement. On June 23, WTI crude closed at $73.21 per barrel, and Brent crude at $76.85 per barrel, each falling about 1% in a single day; over June, both benchmarks dropped nearly 16%, rapidly evaporating the risk premium accumulated since the conflict began. However, this correction is more about sentiment release than a fundamental reversal. Lee Klaskow, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, pointed out that the 60-day ceasefire is highly fragile, with deep differences among Middle Eastern parties unresolved, and the situation could deteriorate at any time. For the textile and chemical fiber industry, crude oil is the upstream raw material for core inputs like PTA and polyester. While short-term price declines ease cost pressure, any new incidents in the strait, such as ship attacks or diplomatic escalations, would quickly revive the risk premium, pushing prices back up. Refineries and traders should not use short-term price drops to gauge medium-to-long-term procurement costs.
High War Risk Insurance Premiums: Core Barrier to Shipping Recovery
Even as strait navigation gradually resumes, shipping companies' willingness to return to Hormuz routes remains heavily suppressed by insurance costs. Current war risk insurance premiums, though down from peak levels during the conflict, still hover around 1% of vessel value, a tenfold increase from the pre-conflict rate of 0.1%. For a typical Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), the war risk premium for a single transit of the strait reaches $2 million. This cost directly erodes shipping profits, leading to conservative operational strategies: some small and medium-sized shipowners choose to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, extending voyage distances and increasing fuel and labor costs; major shipping firms only deploy a few vessels for trial transits. As long as war risk premiums fail to return to normal levels, global crude oil transport turnover efficiency will remain impaired, thereby affecting the supply stability of chemical fiber raw materials.
Transmission Effects on the Textile and Chemical Fiber Supply Chain
The crude oil backlog and high shipping costs are impacting the textile industry through two channels. First, raw material cost volatility intensifies. Prices of chemical fiber products like PTA and polyester filament are highly correlated with crude oil. While short-term oil price corrections bring benefits, a concentrated release of backlogged crude could trigger a phase of price undershooting; conversely, renewed geopolitical risk would push costs higher. Second, supply chain timeliness uncertainty rises. Shipowners' tentative return to navigation creates a congestion deadlock where 'vessels can go but dare not, or want to go but must queue,' delaying cargo arrival times. For domestic PTA plants reliant on imported PX and MEG from the Middle East, inventory management becomes more challenging. Industry public data shows that China imports a significant volume of petrochemical raw materials from the Middle East annually, and the Strait of Hormuz's navigation efficiency directly affects the operating rates of PTA units in East China.