Cotton textiles and chemical fibers moved in opposite directions during the same night trading session. Data from the night session on June 26 shows the main cotton yarn contract (2609) closed at 22,210 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the main cotton contract (2609) closed at 15,730 yuan per ton, up 0.32%. On the other side, the main polyester staple fiber contract (2608) closed at 6,936 yuan per ton, down 0.14%; bottle-grade chips (2609) closed at 6,620 yuan per ton, down 0.21%; PTA (2609) was nearly flat at 5,468 yuan per ton.
Cotton: Low Inventories and Weather Speculation Support Price Resilience
Both cotton yarn and cotton futures rose, driven primarily by supply-side factors. Domestic cotton commercial inventories have fallen to the lowest level for this period in three years, and the new crop in Xinjiang is entering a critical growth phase, with localized high temperatures and drought raising concerns about yields. Although the national cotton market monitoring system has not yet adjusted its 2026/27 production estimate, speculative capital has already priced in a weather premium. Cotton yarn followed the uptrend more clearly—spinners generally hold low raw material stocks, and just-in-time replenishment combined with hedging activity pushed the futures curve higher.
From a value chain perspective, this rally has not yet effectively transmitted to downstream weaving and dyeing sectors. Weaving mill operating rates remain around 60%, finished goods inventories are still accumulating, and procurement remains hand-to-mouth. This suggests that the rise in cotton yarn futures reflects cost expectations at the raw material end rather than a genuine recovery in end-user demand. Once weather speculation fades or reserve cotton release policies are implemented, there is a risk of a phased correction in cotton prices.
Chemical Fibers: PTA Flat, Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips Under Pressure
In contrast to the cotton chain, the chemical fiber chain generally performed weakly. The PTA main contract closed nearly unchanged, reflecting limited movement in feedstock PX prices. Although downstream polyester operating rates remain above 85%, sales-to-output ratios have consistently fallen below 100%, and inventory pressure at polyester plants is transmitting back to PTA. Both polyester staple fiber and bottle-grade chips declined, directly due to sluggish end-user demand: incremental orders for textile and apparel exports are insufficient, and domestic consumption has not shown improvement.
Notably, the polyester staple fiber futures have fallen nearly 2% since mid-June, creating a clear divergence from the rise in cotton prices. For blended fabric manufacturers, this price spread shift is changing the economics of fiber blending—the cost advantage of substituting cotton with chemical fibers is narrowing. If cotton prices remain strong while staple fiber continues to weaken, some weaving mills may adjust their raw material mix by increasing staple fiber usage, which could provide some support to staple fiber prices in the medium term.
Industry Impact: Immediate Implications of Night Trading Fluctuations for Procurement and Trade
The practical significance of night trading price signals for textile enterprises lies in inventory management. The rise in cotton yarn futures implies higher raw material procurement costs for spinners, but if downstream orders cannot be repriced simultaneously, profit margins will be squeezed. For weaving and garment companies, current cotton prices are at relatively high levels, making it inadvisable to chase price increases with large stockpiles; maintaining low inventory and fast turnover strategies is recommended.
The weakness in the chemical fiber end offers a bargaining window for buyers. With PTA and staple fiber prices depressed and no strong demand recovery catalyst in sight, polyester plants may offer concessions to move inventory. Foreign trade companies should pay particular attention to this trend: European and American markets are highly price-sensitive for chemical fiber fabrics, and lower raw material costs benefit order-taking, though exchange rate fluctuations must be hedged to protect margins.