The down industry is experiencing a rare divergence. According to latest China Customs data, from January to May 2026, China's down industry total export value was approximately USD 650 million, down 14.2% year-on-year, with the decline widening from the first four months. Meanwhile, total import value surged to USD 350 million, up 46.5%, with May alone reaching over USD 87 million, a 66% surge.
This pattern of weakening exports and exploding imports is not a short-term fluctuation but the result of global consumption structure adjustments and domestic industrial upgrading. For buyers and factories, this means the pricing power, supply flow, and end-demand structure for down materials are undergoing fundamental changes.
Three Signals from Import Data
The import surge is first evident in raw down. From January to May, cumulative raw down imports reached 15,000 tons, up 13.1%, but the corresponding import value was USD 170 million, soaring 70.3%. In May alone, import volume grew only 9.5%, but value skyrocketed 118.6%. The value growth far outpacing volume directly indicates a sharp rise in international premium down prices. Global supply of high-quality goose and duck down is tightening, while domestic brands' rigid demand for high-fill-power, high-cleanliness materials is pushing up the premium.
Second, down garment imports also strengthened. From January to May, cumulative imports reached 2.017 million pieces, valued at USD 180 million, up 25.3% and 29.9% respectively. In May, both volume and value grew over 39%. This shows domestic consumers' demand for overseas premium down brands is steadily increasing, driven by design, functionality, and brand premium.
The third signal is the accelerating month-on-month growth. Import growth was 41.0% in April, jumping to 66.0% in May, indicating the import heat is intensifying. This reflects both domestic consumption seasonality and enterprises' proactive stockpiling against raw material shortages.
Nature of Export Pressure
The 14.2% export decline does not mean a loss of competitiveness. The main drivers are the overseas consumer goods cycle downturn and global demand structure shifts. Demand for basic down products in Europe and the US is shrinking, while emerging markets like Southeast Asia and the Middle East are growing but cannot fill the gap quickly. For foreign trade companies, the low-price volume model is unsustainable; they must shift to higher-value products.
Notably, the export decline is still widening, suggesting external pressure hasn't bottomed out. However, domestic down companies continue product iteration and category optimization, so the long-term upgrade trend remains intact.
Domestic Market Opportunities
Behind the import surge is the certainty of domestic consumption upgrade. The growing demand for premium raw down is driving the domestic supply chain toward higher quality. For companies with raw material processing capabilities, now is the window to introduce imported premium down and improve product quality to capture domestic demand.
The sustained growth in down garment imports puts direct competitive pressure on domestic brands. Overseas premium brands are eroding China's mid-to-high-end market with brand power and product quality. Local companies need to build differentiation from the raw material end, such as using stricter fill power standards and traceable supply chains.