Two weeks after the US-Iran 60-day temporary ceasefire agreement, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has seen a phased recovery, with international crude oil prices falling sharply—WTI closed at $73.21/barrel and Brent at $76.85/barrel, a cumulative decline of nearly 16% in June. However, shipping markets have not fully recovered, with congestion, insurance costs, and geopolitical fragility still suppressing actual circulation efficiency.
For the textile industry, this data directly impacts chemical fiber raw material prices. PTA, polyester staple fiber, and nylon, which use naphtha as upstream feedstock, have already seen significant declines over the past three weeks, with some polyester factories cutting ex-factory prices by 200-400 yuan/ton. However, multiple industry analysts caution that the current decline is more sentiment-driven than a reversal of supply-demand fundamentals.
Truce in Place but Shipping Gridlock Persists
As of June 23, 162 fully loaded crude oil tankers were stranded in and around the Strait, carrying approximately 120 million barrels of crude. Notably, this count excludes numerous "dark ships" that have deliberately turned off their AIS signals—mostly Iranian-linked tankers and small-medium product tankers. This means the actual stranded volume could be 20-30% higher than public data suggests.
Compared to pre-conflict normal levels, the daily number of transiting vessels in the Strait remains less than 60% of normal. Shipowners are generally adopting a cautious re-sailing strategy: sending a few vessels while keeping most on standby. This "can go but dare not, want to go but queue" scenario makes it difficult to clear months of accumulated capacity in the short term. For textile foreign trade companies, this means Middle East-to-Asia shipping capacity remains tight, with container ships and tankers competing for channel resources, potentially keeping textile export freight rates high.
High War Risk Insurance Premiums: Core Obstacle to Shipping Recovery
Even with eased tensions, war risk insurance premiums remain far above pre-conflict levels. Current rates along the Strait are around 1% of vessel value, compared to 0.1% before the conflict. For a typical VLCC, a single transit through the Strait costs $2 million in war risk insurance, directly eroding shipping profits.
What does this cost structure mean for the textile industry? High crude oil transport costs push up naphtha landed prices, which in turn affect intermediates like PX and PTA. While short-term oil price declines seem favorable, if war risk premiums do not return to normal, Strait shipping efficiency cannot recover to pre-conflict levels, and global crude transport turnover efficiency will remain impaired, keeping upward pressure on chemical fiber raw material costs in the medium to long term.
The 'Illusion' of Oil Price Correction and Procurement Window Assessment
Multiple institutions clearly indicate that the current oil price correction is more about short-term sentiment release than a fundamental reversal. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Lee Klaskow notes that the 60-day temporary ceasefire agreement is highly fragile, with no fundamental resolution of differences among Middle Eastern parties. Any renewed attack on vessels or escalation of diplomatic conflict could interrupt the outflow of accumulated crude, quickly re-inflating risk premiums.
From a textile procurement perspective, current PTA and polyester prices are at a temporary low, but the window may be brief. Companies are advised to monitor three signals: whether war risk premiums fall from 1% to below 0.5%, whether daily transits in the Strait recover to 80% of pre-war levels, and whether Iranian crude exports return to pre-sanction levels. Only when all three improve can a trend-based cost decline be confirmed.