Night trading data released structural signals for short-term textile raw material trends. Cotton yarn and cotton both closed higher, while staple fiber and bottle chip weakened simultaneously—a divergence driven by fundamentals and capital sentiment.
Cotton Series: Restocking Intentions Improve
Cotton yarn main contract 2609 closed at 22,210 points, up 0.52%; cotton 2609 rose 0.32% to 15,730 points. Cotton yarn's outperformance suggests improved restocking willingness at downstream weaving mills. Over the past month, spot cotton yarn trade was sluggish, with mills buying only on a need basis and maintaining low inventories. As cotton prices found support in the 15,500-16,000 range, some fabric mills began accepting current levels for point-price restocking, pushing cotton yarn futures slightly higher.
From a basis perspective, cotton yarn futures remain 200-300 yuan/ton below spot averages, leaving room for basis repair. This structure supports hedging and attracts speculative capital. However, sustainability depends on genuine terminal garment orders, which remain small and short-term, with no major orders yet.
Polyester Chain: Staple Fiber Under Pressure, Bottle Chip Weak
In contrast, staple fiber 2608 fell 0.14% to 6,936 points, and bottle chip 2609 dropped 0.21% to 6,620 points. PTA main contract edged up 0.04% to 5,468 points, but the gain was minimal, failing to provide effective cost support downstream. The core reason for staple fiber weakness is high inventory across the polyester chain. As of late June, staple fiber factory inventory days have rebounded to 12-15 days, above neutral levels.
For bottle chip, the downstream beverage packaging sector enters a traditional off-season, slowing procurement, while new capacity gradually comes online, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances. PTA is temporarily supported by PX costs but lacks upward momentum. Overall, polyester chain products lack single-direction upward drivers and will likely remain weak and range-bound.
Industry Impact: Profit Redistribution Along the Chain
The divergence between cotton and polyester chains essentially reflects profit redistribution. Cotton yarn's lead over cotton means spinning margins are improving—a positive signal for spinners, as earlier losses from cotton price volatility ease. But for weavers, rising cotton yarn costs squeeze margins if terminal order prices cannot pass through.
For the polyester chain, falling staple fiber and bottle chip prices temporarily reduce cost pressure for downstream nonwovens, fillings, and beverage packaging firms. However, this price decline is driven by oversupply, not demand, and is therefore unsustainable. Any unexpected PX or PTA production cuts could quickly reverse costs.