The bulk textile commodity price report for the last week of June 2026 reveals a stark contrast: cotton yarn 21S and 32S edged up 0.14% and 0.10% respectively, while 13 out of 18 monitored products declined. Acrylonitrile and PTA led the drop with 6.92% and 5.10% weekly falls. This is not an isolated fluctuation but a signal that upstream cost support is rapidly crumbling, reshaping profit distribution across the textile chain.
Upstream Raw Materials: Collapse of Cost Support
Acrylonitrile plunged 6.92% to 10,083 RMB/ton, with its year-on-year gain narrowing from over 30% to 25%. PTA dropped 5.10% to 5,734 RMB/ton. Both are core feedstocks for polyester and acrylic fibers, meaning the cost structure for downstream synthetic fibers is undergoing a rapid reset.
Polyester filament yarns followed suit: POY fell 2.36%, DTY 2.60%, and FDY 1.62%. Polyester staple fiber declined 0.91%. Nylon products slipped between 0.88% and 1.21%. Viscose staple fiber and spandex remained largely flat, indicating divergence in cost support among different fiber types.
The Logic Behind Cotton Yarn's Resilience
Against the broad downturn, cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose 0.14% and 0.10% to 23,400 and 24,725 RMB/ton respectively, with year-on-year gains of 7.50% and 6.57%. However, raw cotton fell 1.23% to 17,418 RMB/ton, still up 16.08% year-on-year.
This price scissors creates a temporary profit window for spinners, but sustainability depends on two factors: whether downstream fabric mills will hold back purchases due to firm cotton yarn prices, and whether the substitution effect between cotton and chemical fibers accelerates. Historically, when the polyester-cotton price gap widens, weavers adjust their blend ratios, reducing cotton usage and increasing polyester, which in turn pressures cotton yarn demand.
Transmission: From Raw Materials to Fabrics
The current price structure shows a typical pattern: upstream collapse, midstream pressure, downstream wait-and-see. The plunge in acrylonitrile and PTA will compress production costs for acrylic and polyester staple fibers, but this cost benefit has not yet fully passed to the grey fabric stage. Polyester yarn fell 1.79%, much less than the 5.10% drop in its feedstock PTA, indicating a 1-2 week transmission lag.
For fabric and garment buyers, this means a concentrated round of price cuts for polyester and nylon fabrics is likely in the next 2-3 weeks. Conventional items like polyester taffeta, peach skin, and imitation silk have more room to drop. Cotton-based fabrics are less likely to see near-term price cuts, but if chemical fiber prices continue to fall, blended fabrics will gain a competitive edge.
Regional Industrial Cluster Reactions
Different industrial clusters show varying sensitivity to this price shock. In Shengze and Changxing, where polyester filament is the main raw material, weavers will benefit from lower input costs but also face the risk of inventory devaluation. In Nantong's home textile cluster and Lanxi's denim cluster, which rely more on cotton yarn, the immediate impact is muted, but substitution risk looms.
Traders at Keqiao Textile City have adopted a 'make-to-order' strategy, reducing stock of conventional items and increasing holdings of differentiated and functional fabrics. This behavior itself intensifies price competition for standard items: when raw material costs fall, traders avoid inventory, forcing mills to cut prices to win limited orders.