The temporary ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz has not restored global shipping to normal. As of June 23, 162 laden crude oil tankers with AIS signals remained stranded in and around the strait, carrying approximately 120 million barrels of crude. This figure excludes numerous 'dark ships' that have voluntarily turned off positioning signals—Iran-linked tankers and small-medium product tankers choosing to remain invisible—meaning the real backlog is likely larger.
Behind the 16% Oil Price Drop: Sentiment Release, Not Fundamental Reversal
International crude oil markets reacted swiftly to the ceasefire news. On June 23, WTI crude closed at $73.21/barrel and Brent at $76.85/barrel, both down about 1% on the day; over the entire month of June, both benchmarks fell nearly 16%, erasing most of the geopolitical risk premium built up since the conflict began.
Industry analysts unanimously view this decline as short-term sentiment release. The 60-day temporary ceasefire is inherently fragile, with fundamental differences between parties unresolved, meaning geopolitical tensions could escalate again at any moment. Should the strait see renewed ship attacks or channel control incidents, the outflow of backlogged crude will be interrupted again, and risk premiums will quickly rebound.
For the textile industry, this means the cost floor for polyester, nylon, and other petrochemical-based fibers has not been confirmed. Any sudden price spike in crude will directly push up raw material costs for chemical fiber producers.
War Risk Insurance Premiums Surge Tenfold: Core Barrier to Shipping Recovery
Even with eased tensions, insurance costs remain the biggest obstacle preventing shipowners from fully returning to Hormuz routes. Current war risk insurance premiums in the strait, though down from crisis peaks, still hover around 1% of hull value—compared to just 0.1% before the conflict.
For a very large crude carrier (VLCC), a single transit through the strait now carries war risk premiums of up to $2 million. This massive expense directly erodes shipping profits, leading to conservative operational strategies: smaller shipowners opt for Cape of Good Hope detours, increasing voyage length and fuel/labor costs; major shipping companies deploy only a few vessels for trial passages, unwilling to commit large capacity to the Persian Gulf.
Transmission Path to Textile Chemical Fiber Raw Materials
The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly 20% of global crude oil seaborne trade, meaning its transit conditions directly determine international crude pricing and global refinery feedstock supply. For textiles, crude price fluctuations transmit through the following chain:
- Naphtha price changes directly affect PX (paraxylene) costs, which then pass through to PTA (purified terephthalic acid) and polyester filament/staple fiber;
- The same path affects the benzene-caprolactam-nylon 6 chip chain;
- Tanker capacity tightness also pushes up ocean freight for imported ethylene glycol, propylene, and other raw materials.
Currently, daily vessel transits through the strait remain below 60% of pre-conflict levels, with shipowners adopting cautious trial-and-error strategies. As long as war risk premiums cannot return to normal, global crude transport turnover efficiency will remain impaired—meaning the landed cost of chemical fiber raw materials is unlikely to fall back to pre-conflict levels anytime soon.