According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on June 16, 2026, the added value of textile enterprises above designated size grew only 2.6% year-on-year in May, trailing the overall industrial growth rate of 4.5% and the manufacturing average of 4.4%. This figure highlights the ongoing recovery challenges facing the textile sector—among 41 industrial categories, 28 posted growth, but traditional light industries clearly lagged behind.
Sector Divergence Widens
The most notable aspect of the May data is the structural divergence between industries. Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing performed strongly, with electronic equipment manufacturing growing 17%, while traditional sectors like textiles, chemicals, and building materials saw more moderate gains. This is not a short-term phenomenon but a sustained reflection of industrial upgrading and capital allocation in recent years. For textile enterprises, it means that momentum is being diluted in the traditional track as emerging industries gain traction.
Month-on-month data also deserves attention. The overall industrial added value grew 0.40% from April, accelerating slightly, though textile-specific month-on-month figures were not disclosed. The 2.6% annual increase suggests the textile sector remains in a weak recovery zone, with a gap of 1.8 percentage points compared to manufacturing's 4.4% average—a gap that has persisted in recent months, indicating insufficient endogenous momentum.
Dual Pressure from Demand and Costs
The root cause of the textile sector's slow growth lies in dual pressures on demand and costs. On the domestic front, despite ongoing consumption stimulus, the recovery of end-consumer products like apparel and home textiles has been slower than expected. Channel inventories have not been fully digested, delaying orders for upstream fabrics and yarns. On the external front, global trade frictions, exchange rate volatility in key markets, and intensified competition from Southeast Asia have destabilized export orders.
Cost pressures are equally significant. Fluctuations in raw material prices—such as cotton and chemical fibers—combined with rising energy and labor costs, have squeezed profit margins. The NBS data shows that cumulative industrial added value for January-May 2026 grew 5.4%, but the textile sector's cumulative growth is likely below this level, reflecting a lag in profitability recovery compared to output recovery.
Can Autumn-Winter Orders Be a Turning Point?
A key variable widely watched by the industry is the timing of autumn-winter textile orders. Typically, June to August is the peak period for ordering autumn-winter fabrics and garments. If downstream brands and retailers increase restocking, it will directly boost operating rates in weaving and dyeing. Historically, May data marks a low point for the year, and production tends to improve month by month as orders are released.
Government policies are also providing support. Industrial upgrading and transition finance tools are being directed toward traditional manufacturing, allowing textile firms to improve efficiency through equipment renewal and digital transformation, thereby offsetting cost pressures. Additionally, the "15th Five-Year Plan for Employment Priority Strategy" explicitly supports light industries, including textiles, in stabilizing employment and expanding production, offering a policy safety net for labor security.
Patience Required for Full Recovery
Despite expectations of a second-half rebound, the textile sector's full recovery will take time. The 2.6% growth rate, while showing steady improvement, still places textiles in a "following" position relative to the overall manufacturing sector. Internal divergence means that companies with technological advantages and strong customer relationships may benefit first from order recovery, while small and medium-sized OEMs face greater survival pressures.
From a supply chain perspective, the textile industry needs to monitor three key signals: the pace of inventory destocking among downstream brands, raw material price trends, and policy changes in export markets. Only when these three variables shift favorably can the sector's growth rate catch up with or exceed the manufacturing average.