Data from the night session closing on June 26 reveals a key signal: a clear divergence in textile raw material futures. The cotton yarn main contract settled at 22,210 points, up 0.52%, while cotton main contract closed at 15,730 points, a modest gain of 0.32%. In contrast, staple fiber fell 0.14% to 6,936 points, bottle-grade chips dropped 0.21% to 6,620 points, and PTA was nearly flat at 5,468 points. This pattern of 'cotton strength, polyester weakness' is not a random short-term fluctuation but a concentrated reflection of different supply-demand dynamics across the industrial chain.
Cotton Side: Bullish Factors Accumulating, but Demand Concerns Linger
The simultaneous rise in cotton yarn and cotton should first be attributed to阶段性 supply-side support. Domestic cotton commercial inventories continue to draw down, coupled with weather disturbance expectations in Xinjiang cotton regions, strengthening holders' willingness to support prices. However, downstream weaving mill operating rates have not shown a synchronized recovery, and gray fabric inventories remain high. This suggests the price increase is more cost-push and sentiment-driven than a substantive improvement in demand. For spinning mills, the slightly larger gain in cotton yarn compared to cotton indicates some cost pressure is being passed downstream, but whether end-user orders can follow through remains a key variable.
Polyester Chain: 'Slow Bleeding' Under High Operating Rates
In contrast to cotton textile varieties, polyester-based products like staple fiber and bottle-grade chips posted modest declines during the night session. PTA barely eked out a gain, up just 0.04%, nearly negligible. This weakness reflects the classic dilemma of the polyester chain: upstream PX and PTA operating rates remain high, but downstream polyester filament and staple fiber sales rates continue to be sluggish, with no sign of a pickup in end-user textile and apparel orders. The bottle-grade chip market faces dual pressures from slowing export pace and a domestic off-season. The slight decline in staple fiber prices essentially confirms a negative feedback loop of 'high operating rates, high inventories, low sales.'
Capital Game: Direction Choice Needs Time
From the perspective of volume and open interest, the night session saw little change in positions, with general capital participation. This indicates the market lacks a clear unilateral driver, with both bulls and bears in a probing mode. The rise in cotton textile varieties was not accompanied by significant position increases, suggesting bulls lack confidence; the decline in polyester varieties did not trigger panic selling, as bears also await clearer downstream signals. This pattern of 'can't rally much, can't fall much' is likely to persist until mid-July, when key factors to watch include: weather conditions during the critical growth period of Xinjiang cotton, the execution of planned summer maintenance by polyester plants, and the pace of phased return of overseas textile orders.