The latest China Customs data for May 2026 reveals a telling structural shift in cotton yarn imports: despite a 14% month-on-month decline in total volume, imports of Pakistani cotton yarn bucked the trend with a slight increase and a staggering 80% year-on-year growth. This divergence is not mere seasonal fluctuation but a deep recalibration of the global cotton-spinning supply chain under multiple intersecting forces.
Structural Divergence Amid Volume Contraction
China imported approximately 172,200 tons of cotton yarn in May, down 14.03% month-on-month but still up 71.75% year-on-year. Among major suppliers, Vietnam and India saw significant declines: 82,050 tons (down 11.83%) and 22,430 tons (down 29.38%), respectively. In contrast, Pakistani yarn imports stood at 21,310 tons, virtually flat month-on-month (up 0.01%) but surging 80.36% year-on-year. This 'total down, Pakistan up' pattern signals that Pakistani yarn is steadily eating into market share from Vietnam and India.
For domestic weaving mills and yarn traders, this means the weight of sourcing origins is undergoing a material shift. Factories that previously relied on Vietnamese and Indian low-to-mid count yarns need to reassess the cost-effectiveness and supply stability of Pakistani alternatives.
The Logic Behind Pakistan's Counter-Trend Growth
Pakistan's strong performance is no accident. First, the Pakistani rupee's sustained depreciation against the US dollar directly lowers export prices, enhancing global competitiveness. Second, weak domestic textile consumption forces mills to push exports harder to absorb capacity. Third, closer trade synergy between China and Pakistan—shorter shipping distances and higher logistics efficiency—reduces procurement lead times and uncertainty.
Geopolitical factors also play a role. Tensions in the Middle East have redirected some low-margin, low-to-mid count garment orders back to China from Southeast Asia. These orders are highly cost-sensitive, and Pakistani yarn's low-price advantage fits perfectly.
Double Signal from Open-End Spun Yarn
In contrast to Pakistan's rise, the open-end spun yarn market is experiencing a double blow of falling volumes and prices. Feedback from weaving mills and traders in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates sluggish inquiries and transactions for both bonded and forward cargo. FOB/CNF/CIF quotes from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India continue to edge down.
This signals rising inventory pressure in open-end yarns, tilting the market in buyers' favor. For factories producing denim or home-textile base fabrics that rely on open-end yarns, a cautious pause in procurement may be wise, awaiting better pricing. However, note that Pakistani siro-spun yarn (8S-21S) shipments remain resilient, showing that low-price strategies are effectively capturing niche segments.
Long-Term Impact on Import Yarn Market Structure
Pakistan's rise is not just a short-term price play; it could reshape the long-term ecosystem of China's import yarn market. Pakistani cotton prices fell sharply in mid-June, and improved energy and power supply have boosted mill operating rates, further expanding export capacity. With the rupee's depreciation trend unlikely to reverse soon, Pakistan's price advantage looks sustainable.
For traditional suppliers like Vietnam and India, this means sustained share erosion in low-to-mid count yarns. These countries must pivot to higher-count, differentiated products or face a prolonged price war.