Night Session Divergence: Cotton Textile Raw Materials Strengthen, Polyester Chain Under Pressure

The night trading session on June 26 showed a clear divergence in textile raw material futures: cotton yarn and cotton posted modest gains, while staple fiber and bottle-grade chip fell. This is not a random fluctuation but a reflection of different supply-demand dynamics across chains.

Cotton Products: Demand Resilience Supports Prices

Cotton yarn 2609 contract closed at 22,210 points, up 0.52%, and cotton 2609 rose 0.32% to 15,730 points. The synchronized strength indicates that downstream buyers' appetite for cotton products remains resilient despite the traditional off-season. From an industry perspective, some weaving mills began preparing for autumn-winter orders in late June, providing a temporary floor for cotton yarn demand. Meanwhile, weather uncertainties in Xinjiang cotton-growing areas have also influenced futures pricing.

Notably, cotton yarn outperformed cotton in percentage terms, suggesting a short-term recovery in spinning margins. For spinners, this offers a rare window to improve cash flow, as raw material costs stay relatively stable while finished product prices edge up. However, the sustainability of this spread depends on actual export orders for finished garments.

Polyester Chain: Pressure on Staple Fiber and Bottle-grade Chip

In contrast, the polyester chain showed weakness. PTA 2609 edged up 0.04% to 5,468 points, essentially flat; but staple fiber 2608 fell 0.14% to 6,936 points, and bottle-grade chip 2609 dropped 0.21% to 6,620 points. The decline in staple fiber is directly linked to low operating rates at downstream polyester yarn mills, which are purchasing only for immediate needs. Bottle-grade chip prices fell as the summer beverage packaging season failed to meet expectations, with slower-than-anticipated consumer recovery keeping social inventories high.

On the cost side, volatile international crude oil prices have provided limited support to PTA. With margins squeezed in the PX segment, PTA processing fees remain low, capping downside but also preventing upside momentum. Overall, the polyester chain is stuck in a stalemate with cost support but no demand elasticity.

Transmission to Industrial Clusters and Practical Advice

The divergence will directly impact strategies in major industrial clusters. In cotton-textile hubs like Shandong, Henan, and Nantong, spinners can take advantage of the current premium on cotton yarn to accelerate inventory turnover. In chemical fiber clusters like Xiaoshan (Zhejiang) and Changle (Fujian), staple fiber and bottle-grade chip producers should control output to avoid stock buildup.

For Buyers - Cotton yarn procurement: Consider locking in raw materials for Q4 orders at current prices, especially high-count yarns, as autumn-winter fabric demand is more rigid for these varieties - Staple fiber procurement: Maintain low inventory strategy, wait for clear signals from the polyester chain before restocking, avoid catching falling knives - Monitor cotton-polyester spread: If cotton continues to strengthen while polyester weakens, consider adjusting blend ratios to optimize costs

For Exporters - When quoting textile export prices, account for futures volatility; for cotton products, add flexible pricing clauses - In negotiations with European and American clients, use cotton futures trends as cost-support evidence to strengthen bargaining power - For chemical fiber export orders, shorten quotation validity periods, as downside risk remains in the polyester chain, to avoid dual exposure to exchange rate and raw material price risks