In May 2026, China's total cotton yarn imports fell to 172,200 tons, down 14.03% month-on-month. However, imports from Pakistan bucked the trend, rising 0.01% MoM and surging 80.36% year-on-year. While imports from Vietnam and India dropped 11.83% and 29.38% respectively, Pakistani yarn became the only source to post positive growth. This contrast reflects not just short-term order fluctuations but a deeper realignment in the global cotton yarn trade.
Structural Divergence Amid Falling Volume and Price
Customs data show that in May, imports from Vietnam stood at 82,050 tons (47.63% share, down 11.83% MoM), and from India at 22,430 tons (13.02% share, down 29.38% MoM). Pakistan, with 21,310 tons (12.37% share), held nearly flat MoM but far outpaced Vietnam and India in YoY growth. Industry sources attribute this to a simultaneous decline in rotor-spun yarn volumes and prices.
Feedback from weaving mills in Guangdong to Shandong indicates that inquiries and transactions for rotor-spun yarn at ports and on forward vessels have slowed, with FOB/CNF/CIF quotes from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India generally retreating. In contrast, Pakistani 8S-21S siro-spun yarn shipments have not weakened noticeably, suggesting that Pakistani yarn is capturing market share from India and Vietnam in the low-to-mid count segment.
Three Engines Behind Pakistani Yarn's Rise
The rise in Pakistani yarn imports is no accident. First, the Pakistani rupee's medium- to long-term depreciation against the U.S. dollar has directly boosted its export price competitiveness. A Zhejiang-based light textile import-export company noted that since mid-June, Pakistani cotton prices have fallen sharply, mill operating rates have recovered as energy and power supply crises eased, and export pressure has increased. Buyers are waiting on the sidelines for restocking opportunities.
Second, geopolitical tensions have acted as a catalyst. Conflicts involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran have redirected some low-count, low-margin textile and apparel orders from Southeast Asia back to China. These orders are highly price-sensitive, and Pakistani yarn offers advantages in cotton blending stability and shipping time.
Third, weak domestic demand in Pakistan has forced mills to push exports. The bilateral trade in cotton yarn and fabric between China and Pakistan has become a 'two-way street,' shortening supply chains and lowering logistics costs, further strengthening Pakistani yarn's cost-effectiveness.
Impact on Domestic Mills and Traders
For domestic weaving mills, the steady inflow of Pakistani yarn diversifies raw material options for low-to-mid count yarns but also introduces price volatility risk. Given the strong linkage between Pakistani cotton prices and the rupee, any temporary rupee strength or cotton price rebound could quickly erode Pakistani yarn's cost advantage.
For cotton yarn traders, the current lull in rotor-spun yarn market contrasts with sustained siro-spun yarn shipments, suggesting a need to adjust inventory structures. The price retreat in Vietnamese and Indian rotor-spun yarn may not have bottomed out, while the restocking window for Pakistani yarn requires close monitoring of exchange rates and cotton prices.
Moreover, market expectations of U.S. tariff increases under Section 301 investigations in July are dampening procurement appetite for forward shipments. With Southeast Asian transfer orders winding down and domestic winter-spring orders yet to launch, the imported yarn market may continue to face headwinds in the near term.