Brent crude oil fell 4.34% in a single day, and WTI crude lost the $70 mark—the drop on June 26 has forced a reassessment of pricing logic across the entire chemical fiber chain. Light crude futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $69.23 per barrel, down $2.69; London Brent crude futures settled at $71.99 per barrel, down $3.27. For the textile midstream, which relies heavily on PTA and polyester filament as core raw materials, this is a clear signal of cost collapse.
Cost Side: PTA Processing Spread May Be Squeezed into Loss Territory
Crude oil is the absolute upstream of the polyester chain. According to public industry data, crude accounts for about 65%-70% of PTA production costs. With Brent falling to around $72, the theoretical PX cost has shifted below $900 per ton, while PTA spot prices, constrained by current supply-demand dynamics, cannot follow suit synchronously. This means the PTA processing spread (PTA price minus PX cost) will be quickly compressed.
Historically, when crude drops more than 5% in a week, the PTA spot market often sees a 'cost collapse, price lag' phenomenon. Downstream polyester plants and traders quickly shift to a wait-and-see mode, leading to shrinking spot volumes and weakening basis. After the sharp fall on June 26, PTA futures are likely to open lower in night trading, with long-stop-loss orders potentially amplifying the decline.
For traders and polyester plants holding PTA inventory, this drop means direct inventory value erosion. If oil fails to rebound above $73 within the next week, the PTA processing spread could slide into a low-profit or even loss-making range below 400 yuan per ton, forcing some high-cost units to cut operating rates.
Industry Impact: Polyester Filament Sales Rates May Come Under Pressure Again
Polyester filament, the main raw material for chemical fiber fabrics, is highly correlated with PTA prices. Since June, weaving mill operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have retreated from highs, with terminal orders entering the traditional off-season. The crude crash will intensify the wait-and-see attitude of downstream weavers, who will postpone raw material purchases in anticipation of lower filament quotes.
Public data shows that polyester filament sales rates have already fallen to 50%-60% since mid-June. After this oil price drop, polyester plants are likely to step up promotions. It is expected that over the next week, ex-factory prices for POY, FDY, and DTY could be adjusted downward by 200-400 yuan per ton.
For dyeing and fabric processing enterprises, the decline in raw material costs is a short-term positive, but they must be wary of the 'buy on rising, not on falling' mentality that can delay orders. If downstream apparel brands and traders also postpone procurement, the working capital pressure along the chain will cascade from upstream to downstream.