Polyester FDY Quotation Divergence: Price Anchors Shifting Amid Overcapacity and Regional Competition

A 250 CNY spread between 8,500 and 8,750 CNY per ton for polyester FDY 150D/96F semi-dull grade on June 26 is unusual for a standard specification. It signals not mere price fluctuation but a fracture in the industry's pricing logic.

Quotation Divergence: A Direct Mirror of Overcapacity

Rongsheng Petrochemical and Juxing Chemical both quoted the floor price of 8,500 CNY/ton, while Tongkun Group stood at the top with 8,750 CNY. Tiansheng Chemical at 8,710, Jiabao Fiber at 8,510, and Kaishi Group at 8,650 formed a clear gradient chain.

This divergence reflects a stratified capacity structure. Integrated leaders like Rongsheng and Tongkun boast complete PTA-to-filament chains and strong cost control, yet their pricing strategies diverge sharply: Rongsheng opts to sell near cost to move volume, while Tongkun insists on a premium. Smaller mills like Juxing and Jiabao tend to follow the low end to maintain cash flow.

Price Anchor Loosening: From Cost-Driven to Inventory-Driven

Traditionally, FDY pricing is anchored on feedstock PTA and MEG costs plus a processing margin. But the current 3% spread indicates a partial breakdown of cost pass-through. Industry data shows polyester filament operating rates above 85%, while downstream weaving mills have dropped below 70%—the supply-demand gap is widening.

Hangzhou, home to Rongsheng and Tongkun, sees relatively firm quotes; Shaoxing, a cluster of smaller mills, shows more intense price competition, with 8,500 quotes concentrated there. This regional spread essentially reflects a time lag in inventory pressure transmission: Shaoxing mills feel order weakness earlier and thus cut prices first.

Downstream Procurement Strategy: Window and Risk

For weavers, the current floor of 8,500 CNY/ton means raw material costs are at a near-term low. But procurement decisions cannot rely on a single price point. Three variables must be monitored:
- Polyester plant inventory days: if above 20 days, a new round of cuts may come
- PTA price trends: if PX costs collapse, FDY floor will shift lower
- End-order sustainability: whether export markets will see restocking in Q3

Practical Recommendations

For Purchasers - Track weekly price adjustments from leaders like Rongsheng and Tongkun; if cuts occur for two consecutive weeks, start phased buying - Prioritize low-price sources from Shaoxing small mills, but verify AA-grade quality and delivery stability - Avoid long-term contracts exceeding 30 days of consumption; downside risk outweighs upside potential

For Exporters - Include price fluctuation clauses in export quotes to avoid contract losses from domestic raw material swings - Monitor FDY quotes in Southeast Asia; if the domestic-overseas spread widens to over 200 CNY/ton, consider re-export trade - Use the current low-price window to lock in raw material costs for Q4 export orders in advance