Cotton and chemical fibers are tracing sharply different price curves. In the last week of June 2026, cotton yarn 21S and 32S inched up 0.14% and 0.10% respectively, while acrylic fiber plunged 6.92% and PTA fell 5.10%. Of the 17 monitored textile commodities, 13 declined and only 2 rose, with an average sector drop of 1.65%.
Cotton Side: Tight Supply and Resilient Demand
The resilience of cotton yarn prices is underpinned by cost support from raw cotton. Although cotton lint edged down 1.23% during the week, its year-on-year increase of 16.08% indicates no substantial easing upstream. In Xinjiang, the main cotton-producing region, a slight contraction in planting acreage combined with a holding sentiment among some processors has tightened spot supply.
Downstream buyers showed strong restocking interest at lower price levels, especially for 32S yarn used in denim and knitwear, stabilizing prices. Viscose staple fiber and spandex remained flat or slightly down but were up 9.06% and 21.09% year-on-year, showing that non-cotton fibers are still in a high range. For spinners, profit margins on cotton yarn are acceptable, but raw material inventory management requires more precision.
Chemical Fiber Chain: Upstream Collapse and Downstream Caution
Losses in the chemical fiber sector were concentrated in the upstream. Acrylic fiber fell nearly 7% in a week, and PTA dropped over 5%, dragging down all polyester filament varieties: POY, DTY, and FDY fell between 1.6% and 2.6%. This correction is not isolated—the PX-naphtha spread has narrowed, PTA processing margins have fallen below breakeven, and some plants have begun planned maintenance.
- Acrylic fiber: Weak demand from ABS and acrylic fiber downstream, with operating rates dropping below 75%, pushing inventory pressure to midstream.
- PTA: New capacity additions combined with weakening polyester demand have pushed social inventories to near two-year highs.
- Polyester filament: Weaving mill operating rates have fallen from May highs, fabric inventories are accumulating, and purchases are mainly for immediate needs.
For polyester plants, this price correction means a potential shift of profits from raw materials to processing. But if end-order demand remains weak, the risk of inventory depreciation in the intermediate links cannot be ignored.
Industry Impact: Procurement Windows and Risk Hedging
The divergence between cotton and chemical fibers offers downstream enterprises differentiated operational opportunities. Cotton yarn buyers can lock in volumes moderately at current price levels to avoid future raw material rebound costs. Chemical fiber users, however, need to be wary of the 'falling price trap'—if PTA and acrylic fiber continue to drop, holding inventory may incur depreciation losses that outweigh the price advantage at purchase.
From a foreign trade perspective, RMB exchange rate fluctuations and overseas order rhythms are equally critical. Cotton yarn export quotes have remained flat for three consecutive weeks, while polyester fabric export prices have softened, with some Southeast Asian buyers starting to bargain.