The night trading session on June 26 revealed a noteworthy signal: cotton and cotton yarn posted slight gains, while staple fiber and bottle-grade chip declined. This divergence in raw material prices is not a short-term sentiment fluctuation but the result of multiple factors across the industrial chain.
Cotton: Planting Area Reduction Expectations Support Prices
Cotton contract 2609 closed at 15,730 yuan/ton, up 0.32%. Behind this modest rise, expectations of reduced new-season cotton planting area continue to ferment. According to publicly available industry data, China's domestic cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease by approximately 3%-5% compared to the previous year, with a notable trend of cotton fields in Xinjiang shifting to grain crops. The expectation of supply-side contraction is gradually translating into price support in the futures market.
Cotton yarn contract 2609 rose 0.52% in tandem, closing at 22,210 yuan/ton. The upward movement in cotton yarn prices, in addition to cost transmission from cotton, also reflects the factor of some spinning mills voluntarily limiting production and supporting prices during the off-season. Current cotton yarn inventories are at moderately low levels, with limited pressure for enterprises to offload, providing short-term price resilience.
Staple Fiber and PTA: Weak Costs and Soft Demand in Tandem
In contrast to the cotton sector, staple fiber contract 2608 fell 0.14% to 6,936 yuan/ton, and bottle-grade chip contract 2609 fell 0.21% to 6,620 yuan/ton. Both belong to the polyester chain, and their weak performance is directly linked to the softness of upstream PTA. PTA contract 2609 barely moved, rising 0.04% to 5,468 yuan/ton, offering no cost support to downstream products.
The decline in staple fiber has a deeper cause: insufficient operating rates in the downstream weaving sector. According to publicly available data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions fell below 65% in mid-June, lower than the same period last year. Orders for home textiles and apparel fabrics have been sluggish, leading to staple fiber procurement being limited to essential needs, with low speculative replenishment willingness.
Industrial Logic Behind the Divergence
The divergence between cotton and staple fiber essentially reflects the different positions of natural fibers and chemical fibers in the industrial chain. Cotton is constrained by uncontrollable factors such as planting area and weather, with relatively low supply elasticity, making prices more susceptible to expectations. In contrast, staple fiber, as a chemical product, has faster capacity adjustment and is more sensitive to marginal changes in downstream demand.
For textile enterprises, this divergence means that procurement strategies need to be more refined. With cotton prices firm, cotton spinning enterprises should focus on inventory management before the new cotton season; while chemical fiber enterprises need to be wary of further declines in staple fiber prices and reasonably control raw material inventory cycles.