The textile raw material market experienced an unusual sharp divergence among product categories in late June 2026. Cotton yarns posted modest gains against the trend, while the chemical fiber chain suffered a collective downturn, with acrylonitrile falling nearly 7% in a single week and PTA dropping over 5%. This structural gap reflects deep differences in supply-demand dynamics across different industrial chains.
Cotton Yarn: Fragile Balance Between Cost Support and Demand
Cotton yarn 21S and 32S recorded weekly gains of 0.14% and 0.10%, closing at 23,400 RMB/ton and 24,725 RMB/ton respectively. Year-on-year, cotton yarn 21S rose 7.50% and 32S rose 6.57%. While modest, these gains stand out against the broad market decline.
The slight uptick was mainly supported by relatively firm raw cotton prices. Although raw cotton itself fell 1.23% to 17,417.67 RMB/ton during the week, it remained 16.08% higher year-on-year, providing a cost floor for cotton yarn. However, downstream weaving mills showed little enthusiasm for restocking. The price increase in cotton yarn is far smaller than the year-on-year gain in raw cotton, indicating that end-user demand is nearing its limit for price pass-through.
For spinning mills, profit margins are being squeezed. If raw cotton prices remain high while yarn prices cannot keep pace, the third quarter may see voluntary production cuts or product mix adjustments.
Chemical Fiber Chain: Double Blow from Cost Collapse and Weak Demand
The chemical fiber sector was the hardest hit. Acrylonitrile led the decline with a 6.92% weekly drop to 10,083.33 RMB/ton, though it still showed a 25.00% year-on-year increase, suggesting a rapid retreat from earlier gains. PTA followed with a 5.10% drop to 5,734 RMB/ton. Polyester DTY, POY, and FDY fell 2.60%, 2.36%, and 1.62% respectively, while polyester staple fiber slipped 0.91%.
The trigger for this decline was the loosening of upstream raw material costs. International crude oil prices pulled back in late June, directly weakening cost support for PTA and acrylonitrile. Meanwhile, inventory of downstream polyester filament and staple fiber continued to accumulate. Weaving mill operating rates declined during the traditional off-season, limiting raw material purchases to essential needs.
The nylon chain also suffered: nylon DTY, POY, and FDY fell 0.88%, 1.09%, and 1.21% respectively. Spandex dropped 0.56% to 29,666.67 RMB/ton, still 21.09% higher year-on-year but clearly off its year-to-date peak. Raw silk fell 1.99% to 428,100 RMB/ton, turning to a 10.12% year-on-year decline, reflecting persistently weak silk consumption.
Transmission Effects of Price Divergence
Of the 17 monitored textile commodities, only 2 rose, 13 fell, and the proportion of declining items reached 76.5%. Products with declines exceeding 5% accounted for 11.8%, indicating a broadly bearish market sentiment.
This divergence has distinct implications for different segments. For cotton textile enterprises, high raw material costs and limited product price increases mean third-quarter profits may be under pressure. They should closely monitor price trends after the new cotton harvest. For chemical fiber companies, rapidly falling raw material costs improve short-term profit margins, but if downstream demand remains weak, inventory pressure will force price cuts to destock, creating a negative cycle.
For end brands and traders, the current raw material environment offers differentiated procurement windows: cotton yarn prices are relatively firm, suitable for on-demand purchasing; chemical fiber prices are weakening, allowing for increased forward order price locking.