The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, released on June 16, shows that the textile industry's value-added grew by only 2.6% year-on-year in May, significantly lagging behind the national average of 4.5% for all industrial enterprises above designated size and the manufacturing sector's 4.4%. Among 41 industrial categories, 28 maintained growth, yet the textile sector's performance highlights the dual pressures of weak demand and rising costs faced by traditional manufacturing.
Sectoral Divergence Behind the Numbers
A key feature of May's industrial production is intensifying sectoral divergence. Equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries performed strongly, with electronic equipment manufacturing value-added surging 17%, nearly 6.5 times that of textiles. Traditional industries such as textiles, chemicals, and building materials grew modestly, reflecting a structural shift where capital, policy, and orders are concentrating on high-value-added sectors.
On a month-on-month basis, industrial value-added grew 0.40% in May, and cumulative growth for January-May reached 5.4%. While the textile sector's 2.6% year-on-year increase represents a 'steady recovery,' its pace is clearly weaker than the broader economy. This suggests the recovery is more a passive response to macroeconomic improvement than a demand-driven rebound.
Dual Constraints of Weak Demand and Rising Costs
The textile sector's underperformance stems directly from a lack of substantive improvement in both domestic and external demand. Domestically, consumer confidence recovery is slow, with apparel retail sales growth remaining tepid. Externally, destocking cycles in major Western economies are not yet complete, and intensified competition from Southeast Asian supply chains is eroding China's price advantage.
Cost pressures are equally significant. Cotton and chemical fiber raw material prices fluctuate frequently, while energy and labor costs continue to rise. Downstream brands and retailers are tightening control over final prices, squeezing profit margins. Small and medium-sized enterprises have generally slowed production expansion, directly impacting value-added growth.
Policy Support and Autumn-Winter Order Expectations
However, there are positive signals. Industry analysts believe that with the implementation of consumption-boosting policies, special funds for technological transformation, and transition finance tools supporting green upgrades in traditional manufacturing, cost pressures may gradually ease. Additionally, the seasonal start of autumn-winter orders typically occurs in July-August, and their scale and pace will directly determine whether the sector's growth rate can rise above 4% in the second half.
From a regional cluster perspective, weaving utilization rates in Keqiao and Shengze began to recover slightly in late May, with gray fabric inventories declining. However, whether this recovery is sustainable still depends on actual order fulfillment in June-July.