Upstream raw material prices experienced a concentrated decline at the end of June, with the weekly average decline of bulk textile commodities reaching 1.65%. Acrylonitrile and PTA fell 6.92% and 5.10% respectively, the deepest drops in this adjustment. Meanwhile, cotton yarn 21S and 32S bucked the trend with slight increases of 0.14% and 0.10%. This divergence between upstream and downstream is reshaping the profit distribution pattern of the textile industry chain.
Upstream Raw Materials Under Pressure
Acrylonitrile prices fell from 10,833 yuan/ton to 10,083 yuan/ton within a week, a decline of nearly 7%, the largest among all monitored varieties. This trend is directly linked to loosening upstream raw material costs and weak downstream demand for acrylic fiber and ABS. PTA prices dropped 5.10%, from 6,042 yuan/ton to 5,734 yuan/ton, reflecting high inventory levels across the polyester chain and insufficient end-user orders. Among polyester filament yarns, POY, FDY, and DTY all declined, with DTY falling the most at 2.60%. Polyester staple fiber and polyester yarn also fell by 0.91% and 1.79% respectively.
The nylon chain similarly weakened, with nylon POY, FDY, and DTY declining between 0.88% and 1.21%. Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices remained flat, making them among the few varieties that did not decline, indicating a temporary weak equilibrium between supply and demand in the viscose sector.
Cotton Textiles Stand Firm
In a broadly declining market, cotton yarn 21S and 32S were the only two varieties to rise. Although the increases were modest, the directional divergence is noteworthy. Cotton yarn price resilience stems from two factors: first, while cotton prices fell 1.23% weekly, they remain 16.08% higher year-on-year, providing strong cost support; second, downstream weaving mills have maintained just-in-time replenishment, preventing significant contraction in cotton yarn procurement. Raw silk prices fell 1.99%, with a year-on-year decline of 10.12%, reflecting sustained weak demand in the silk sector.
This structural divergence between 'weak chemical fibers, stable cotton textiles' means that textile enterprises across different product categories need differentiated inventory management and pricing strategies. For weaving and dyeing companies primarily using polyester and nylon as raw materials, falling input prices can lower procurement costs in the short term. However, if end-user orders do not recover simultaneously, the risk of inventory write-downs from price declines cannot be ignored.
Market Expectations and Industry Impact
From a year-on-year perspective, most varieties remain above last year's levels. PTA is up 12.80%, polyester POY up 11.56%, and spandex up 21.09%. This suggests the current price correction is more of a high-level adjustment rather than a trend reversal. Spandex prices edged down 0.56% this week, but the 21% year-on-year increase indicates supply-demand conditions remain tight, making a sharp decline unlikely in the near term.
For foreign trade enterprises, raw material price fluctuations directly impact export quotation competitiveness. Lower PTA and polyester product prices can reduce export costs for polyester-based textiles, potentially benefiting order negotiations in the second half of the year. However, the sharp volatility in acrylonitrile may affect cost calculations for acrylic and carbon fiber products, requiring companies to strengthen risk hedging.